Melissa Harris-Perry: I'm Melissa Harris-Perry. This is The Takeaway. It is good to have you with us on our politics show.

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Melissa Harris-Perry: Now it went down in New Jersey this week. On Tuesday night, Democratic incumbent, Governor Phil Murphy, debated Republican challenger, Jack Ciattarelli in the final debate of the New Jersey gubernatorial race. There are only two candidates running for office, but three opponents showed up at the debate. Murphy, Ciattarelli, and the crowd. I like to believe that y'all out there, as you're listening to The Takeaway are either cheering or booing with the same Jersey-level enthusiasm. I got to tell you it's pretty wild outside the debate hall too.

Former New Jersey governor, Republican Christine Todd Whitman is among the leaders of a new movement to purge Trump loyalists and reinvigorate mainline conservativism within the Republican Party. They're called--

Voiceover: The Renew America Movements. We need regular Americans to step forward and we're calling all humans.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Now this week, the Republicans of the Renew America Movement, they endorsed two New Jersey Democrats and a Philadelphia Democrat in those bids for state legislative seats. While New Jersey Republicans are fighting for the soul of their party, Virginia Democrats seem to be sitting on the sidelines of their gubernatorial contests.

Speaker 3: In Northern Virginia, a Democratic stronghold, possible problems for the former governor.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Early voting has already begun in the Commonwealth and the numbers in Virginia's bluest counties are way down compared to 2017.

Speaker 3: Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria sent just a sixth of Virginia's early votes so far. That's a huge drop from the last governor's race when the blue bastion ultimately delivered a full third of Virginia's early votes.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Down in the peach state, George's election battle is less about candidates and campaigns, and more about fairness and fraud. On Wednesday, a judge in the state dismissed the final lawsuit from the 2020 election litigation. He ruled that the plaintiffs have no standing to sue the Fulton County Election Board. The decision comes on the heels of two Fulton County election workers being fired for shredding registration forms. I'm thinking it is probably pretty safe to assume that confidence in the state's electoral system is less than robust as the 2022 midterms approach.

There's a lot of state politics shaping up around the country, and that's where we begin today's Politics Round table with Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governor's editor for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, and Zach Montellaro, state politics reporter at POLITICO.

Zach Montellaro: Thanks for having me.

Jessica Taylor: Hi there.

Melissa Harris-Perry: I want to begin with you, Jessica. What were the takeaways from the governor's debate in New Jersey this week?

Jessica Taylor: I think that there's a passion that people on both sides, and New Jersey certainly has a reputation for being rough and tumble, so I wasn't really surprised. COVID issues have driven a lot of people to become more engaged. You have Governor Phil Murphy there that has put on some pretty strict restrictions. This to me is a test of whether voters approve of those. We do see they have that in the polls, he's mandated masks in schools. A more controversial step he took recently was actually mandating kids over two, if they are in daycare or certain things, that they now have to wear a mask.

That's gotten pushbacks from Ciattarelli, but, of course, New Jersey was at the height of the pandemic, to begin with, but cases have been more under control than even some Southern less populated states that they've had to deal with. I see COVID is a major issue happening here. I think you saw that reflected in perhaps the debate.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Let me come down here to Zach and ask what you make of this Renew America Movement, and specifically that it's led in part by Christin Todd Whitman, the first woman to serve as governor of the state of New Jersey, and a Republican of a different era, but clearly here, making bi-partisan efforts to actually bring in different kinds of folks into the system?

Zach Montellaro: I am broadly relatively skeptical of the anti-Trump wing of the Republican Party. We've seen displayed over and over and over again how well they do within the Republican Party. Now, how many of these voters who were soft Republicans in decades past now just identify as Democrats, identify as Independents who are voting democratic in these suburban areas that we've heard so much about over the last four years. What is the crowd that these groups are reaching for? That is the big question.

Most of those people who would identify as Christine Todd Whitman, a Republican, are they already Democrats? Have they already jumped over to the other side, and are they staying there? I tend to believe that at this point, the suburban shifts are-- We've seen the shifts in the suburbs in the last four years of the last decade, whatever you want to call it, these groups were with people who were former Republican elected officials, really the folks without a home at this point.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Yet, that dynamic of a Republican Party, like the New Jersey Republican Party, which, to be clear, is quite different than Republican Parties in other parts of the country. That dynamic that there was booing and cheering and the almost Trump rally-like atmosphere that New Jersey gubernatorial debate. Zach, does that tell you something about the fact that there is still this acrimony despite the fact that you've got these, I guess we're going to call them politically homeless Republicans in the state?

Zach Montellaro: I grew up on the right side of the Hudson River, I'm a native of the New Yorker. Could I be from New York and not New Jersey? No. I think that's just, I don't want to call it par for the course for tri-state area politics. We New Yorkers, New Jerseyans are a little bit more willing to share their opinions about what they think about their politicians. There was that ad from Governor Murphy, I think it was only online this week. Just poking fun how his opponent, when he was, I think it was City Council, when he held the local office, tried to ban swearing. Only in the tri-state area, only in New York, only in New Jersey is that probably a bad thing.

Melissa Harris-Perry: I'm pretty sure it's already banned out here in North Carolina where I live, everyone's very polite. Oh my goodness, it's about as bad as it gets.

Zach Montellaro: I think it's just a different atmosphere that us new Yorkers, New Jersey, folks in the area carry themselves just a little bit differently. I don't know if that's any sign of increased acrimony in the state or not. I think that acrimony is already built-in.

Melissa Harris-Perry: I've just been talking about the ways that Republicans in New Jersey might be different, but it's also true that Democrats are a bit different there. In part, because there is that long tradition in the tri-state area around the strength of policing, firefighters, first responders. I'm wondering if Murphy's positions on Civilian Review Boards and also some additional tightening around local police departments might actually alienate some of the potential Democratic voters who could support Murphy.

Zach Montellaro: That's the big question with not just Governor Murphy, but a lot of Democrats, it's as the parties realigned and shift, how do you hold onto those sometimes thought of as blue-collar jobs? I don't necessarily know that in New York area police or firefighter has much in common with somebody who works elsewhere in a continent have blue-collar, but how do you hold on to those blue-collar jobs while also the increasingly suburban tilt of these parties. New Jersey, very famously is a lot of suburbs to New York City.

It's striking that balance between, "Can I reach these voters that Democrats have traditionally talked to blue color union workers, and while pushing different social messages that are more in tune with some suburbanites?"

Melissa Harris-Perry: Jessica, why don't we just wander on down the East Coast a little bit to Virginia? I'm wondering what you make of these low numbers that we're seeing with the early voting? Zach and I have just been talking about the suburbs and obviously Northern Virginia, which in many ways, is DC light. They seem to be not turning out in the same numbers that we've seen in previous state elections.

Jessica Taylor: This is a bit surprising to me because I actually live here in Alexandria. There's a lot of local elections going on too that normally I think would be a bigger driver. You would have people more coming out. Certainly, there's plenty of signs and things out, but we aren't seeing that in the numbers yet. There's still a little over two weeks, certainly. Virginia, they just made it easier to early vote right ahead of the pandemic, of course, before you had to have an excuse. Maybe voters aren't as used to requesting those in a way. I think it's still more of a tradition of going to the polls here in Virginia, aside from the pandemic.

This is not encouraging to Democrats, certainly. I'm not saying it's a five-alarm fire yet because we have to wait and see, but that complacency is always, this is the biggest threat to holding the seat, which again, as I mentioned, this is a seat that Biden won by 10 points. As we see his numbers crater, nationally, one poll yesterday showed them rebounding and Virginia and McAuliffe having a little bit more of a comfortable lead. We'll see if that was more of an outlier or if other polls are continuing to show it close.

That's where you were seeing Democrats and McAuliffe making this argument in the last few weeks that if you stay home, you could have a Republican. A similar argument was made, of course, when we were seeing lower numbers coming in in the California recall. Now, they had a step taken out for them because every voter there got a ballot mailed to them, so much easier to just do that when you don't have to request it, go anywhere, different things. Democrats, here in Virginia, you're going to have to convince them, "It takes a little bit of work to vote. You still got to go out and do this."

I think voters are frankly exhausted after the past four years, five years. Here in Virginia, we vote every single year as well, so it can get exhausting. You're seeing McAuliffe bringing in the big guns. I'm going this weekend, he's campaigning with Stacey Abrams in Northern Virginia and the Hampton Roads area in Virginia Beach. Next weekend, he's bringing in probably the biggest name you can get here, Barack Obama. He has said he will campaign with Biden. There's been a bit of a question of that because his numbers have, of course, fallen. We don't have a date for that yet.

The argument they've got to make is, "You have to come out, you can't just sit this one out," but we do see, and a reason why we rate this race as toss-up right now is because the enthusiasm is on the Republican side right now, and that's a big worry for Democrats.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Your point about voter fatigue, just in general in Virginia, I absolutely get. Having grown up in Charlottesville, I'm not sure I knew there was a thing called an election year. It just seemed like elections were like dinner time. They're just a constant part of life. It is still true though, Zach, that, for example, we typically, in any election that is an off-year, so off-presidential year, but especially in Virginia where they are off even the midterm cycle, that tends to benefit Republicans because it tends to reduce turnout. Hasn't always been true in the Commonwealth, though. I'm wondering if this just looks like regular cycle to you or if there's something specific about 2021.

Zach Montellaro: I think the big thing with Virginia is that we've heard this a lot from Governor McAuliffe too is that the candidate who is running against the party in the White House has almost always won the Virginia gubernatorial race for the last several decades. The one exception to that is Terry McAuliffe in 2009 rather. Did I get that right? The one exception to that is when Governor McAuliffe won the first time he ran for office then. Obama was in the White House in 2013, there we go, and he won. If he was to win again, it's cutting against the historical norms. I think that more than anything, is what's going against him is that Virginia has been a fixed state.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Jessica, let's stick with Virginia for just a second. Not only are there these big statewide races going on, but all 100 seats in the State House of Delegates are up for bids. Most of them are contested, and Democrats have definitely used their 10 seat majority to pass some pretty sweeping progressive legislation, at least relative to Virginia in recent years. Do you think that boldness is going to be rewarded or punished or just ignored in this election?

Jessica Taylor: I think we're not sure yet. Certainly, it's created some backlash among Conservatives and you are seeing, I think some people get activated and motivated. The State House is very much in play. I think the is too, and this is the argument that Republicans and the lead for the House of Delegates are making, and then, Terry McAuliffe, the Republican nominee for governor, is making is that there needs to be a check enrichment. This is what Democrats challenge is, is that not only do they have full control of Washington, of course, and I do think also because Virginia and Northern Virginia, especially is so close to Washington.

I think the gridlock in Congress and not getting an infrastructure or social programs bill like Biden and Democrats wanted to point to, that gridlock, I think is hurting too. Then when you have Democrats in control of Richmond too, I think that factors in voters' minds as well. Education issues, I think, is one of the biggest things that we are seeing Republicans try to use here. I went to a Youngkin rally yesterday in Warrenton, which is in Fauquier County. On the excerpts, it's a pretty conservative county, but you have other counties that have really switched over the Trump years.

Nearby Loudoun County that was a pretty Republican area, now went easily for Biden in the last election. There's been fights at their School Board meetings over transgender pronouns and masks and what's being taught in the schools. Youngkin is really seized on something that McAuliffe have said during the last debate where he said that essentially parents shouldn't be telling schools what they're teaching. Well, he's trying to, hopefully, that can energize people. I do think because of COVID, you had parents at home trying to take care of their kids.

They're maybe getting more involved seeing what their kids are doing, worried about them falling behind that. You do have parents that are perhaps more engaged and haven't been as engaged in politics. I talked to some voters there at this rally there yesterday, had about 200 people. Education issues are playing in here. There have been questions about whether to roll back Gifted&Talented programs in schools. There's a lot of-- I think education is out, they're on a lot of these issues.

Policing issues as well, for both sides, they're trying to talk about. There's a lot of local issues, but I think also a lot of these races have become nationalized both at the gubernatorial and at the state legislature level too.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Zach, we are still more than a year away from the full-on midterms, but of course, gubernatorial races are already starting to heat up across the country. Are there other states-- we've been kind of focused here on New Jersey and Virginia because they're coming right away, but what other gubernatorial or Senate races are you watching closely?

Zach Montellaro: We have 36 gubernatorial races next year, which is a lot. As much as I would like to say, I'm taking a trip out to Hawaii to cover that race that probably won't be. There's a lot of those traditional battleground states that have gubernatorial races next year, and that overlap with the Senate race. The one I'm probably keeping the closest attention on might be Georgia. That's going to get me yelled at for the other close states, but Georgia's just a really fascinating test case for a lot of different things.

Republican Governor Brian Kemp, as everyone is probably aware, former President Trump is no fan of his. Trump has said at points that he'd rather have Stacey Abrams and the Governor's Mansion than Kemp. One, we're going to see if he gets a legitimate serious primary challenger that former backs, and that's a real good test case of where the party is, where the Republican party is, how tied it is to Trump. Can Trump defeat a sitting Conservative incumbent governor?

Then the other case is, of course, will Stacey Abrams run for Democrats, and everyone hoping, by everyone make Democrats are hoping and expecting that she will. Then how much of how-- We've been slowly marching towards Georgia being a swing state. This will be a rematch of 2018 if Stacey Abrams runs and if Governor Kemp stays in office, and it's going to be a fascinating contest.

Melissa Harris-Perry: I feel there's a lot of progressive listeners who might be listening and just found themselves shocked to realize that they agree with President Trump on an important, like a political, an elections question, which is a preference for Stacey Abrams over Brian Kemp in the Governor's Mansion in Georgia. I'm wondering, are you also, Zach, watching Kansas or Pennsylvania? Those are the two I've been interested in recently.

Zach Montellaro: Yes. Kansas is another interesting one too. There, it's Democratic Governor Laura Kelly, and everyone stops and goes, "Wait, Democratic governor in Kansas?" Yes, she is the single Democrat governor running in a state that President Trump carried in 2020. She's the only one up for reelection in 2022. It'll, of course, be a very close race there. Republicans feel pretty good there. The sitting Attorney General is really the only candidate there, Attorney General Schmidt. They feel pretty confident, but it's never easy to knock off a sitting incumbent governor, and it won't be easy to defeat Laura Kelly either.

There was a poll early from Emily's List, which is a liberal group that backs women, that backs pro-choice women rather, and she's above water. That's going to be a fun contest if just for the fact that it is a race that there's a Democrat in a very red state. Pennsylvania too is going to be an open state race. Democrat Attorney General, Josh Shapiro is almost assuredly going to be the Democratic nominee. Republicans have a really, really, really messy primary. We don't quite know how that's going to shake out yet.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Jessica, the invocation here of Emily's List is, is a reminder that, again, all politics may be local but there are these national issues. To what extent is the question of abortion going to be central in the elections that are coming up immediately and into the midterms?

Jessica Taylor: We have seen certainly McAuliffe use it in had bring it up in the debates because of Texas, of course. Voters in Virginia overwhelmingly support abortion rights to at least certain weeks, more than the six weeks in Texas, certainly. Youngkin was also caught on a tracker video where he was asked about his positions where he is pro-life and said, "I can't really talk about that right now while I'm running, because it's going to lose me Independent votes." They are all hammering on that.

How much of an issue it becomes in governors' races, I think we'll see if the Texas law stands. Of course, we have the challenge before the Supreme Court coming from Mississippi, and that will come next summer, ahead of some of these governors' races. Yes, it really could play a big part.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Jessica Taylor is the Senate and Governor's Editor for The Cook Political Report. Zach Montellaro is state politics reporter at POLITICO. We're going to both try to figure out how to get The Takeaway to cover the Hawaii race. Thank you both for joining us.

Zach Montellaro: Thank you.

Jessica Taylor: Thank you.

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