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Janae Pierre: Welcome to The Takeaway. I'm Janae Pierre, in for Melissa Harris-Perry. Thanks for starting your week with us.

Over the weekend, Ukrainian forces managed to retake the city of Lyman in the Donetsk region in the eastern part of the country. Russian troops retreated in what amounted to another embarrassing defeat just one day after Russian president, Vladimir Putin, had declared the annexation of Donetsk and three other Eastern provinces in a move that most of the international community views as illegal.

Vladimir Putin: [foreign language]

Interpreter: The choice of millions of people in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions and encompasses hundreds of years and this is the link, the spiritual link that we carry throughout these years, embedded in the love to Russia. Nobody can destroy this love, them becoming our citizens forever.

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Janae Pierre: Now earlier in the week, Russia had staged elections in those regions, allegedly asking Ukrainian citizens if they wanted to formally become a part of the Russian territory. Russian state media claim the results were overwhelmingly in favor of joining Russia, but those results have been rejected by most of the world. White House National Security advisor, Jake Sullivan spoke about it Friday.

Jake Sullivan: This act is a flagrant violation of international law, and it has no legitimacy. Based on our information, every aspect of this process was pre-staged and falsified under orders from the Kremlin. The sham referenda were held at gunpoint. Ukrainian civilians were forced to cast ballots through coercion, intimidation, and in some cases, under the watch of armed guards. Saying that it somehow reflects the will of the people is an absurdity.

Janae Pierre: President Biden promised that Russia's territorial claims will never be recognized.

President Biden: Quite frankly the world's not going to recognize it either. He can't seize his neighbor's territory and get away with it as simple as that.

Janae Pierre: The president also announced a new set of sanctions on Russia, and Congress passed a spending bill, which includes an additional $12.3 billion in economic and military aid to Ukraine. This is in addition to the approximately $54 billion in aid sent to Ukraine already. Biden issued a clear warning to President Putin about further escalation.

President Biden: America's fully prepared with our NATO allies to defend every single inch of NATO territory, every single inch, so. Mr. Putin, don't misunderstand what I'm saying. Every inch.

Janae Pierre: To get a handle on all of this, we spoke with Michael McFaul. He served as US Ambassador to Russia from 2012 until 2014, and he's currently professor of political science at Stanford University. McFaul joined us on Monday morning. It's been an eventful few days in the war, first with news of the annexation, then with the events in Lyman. Where do things stand now, in your eyes, for Russia at this point?

Michael McFaul: Let's start with Friday. Friday was a tragic historic day in the history of Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and I would say the international system that started in 1945. Putin announced his attempt at annexation of land the size of Portugal. That hasn't happened since World War II and would set an incredibly dangerous precedent if it was allowed to stand. Leaders around the world including President Biden denounced it. I can't think of a single leader actually that supported it.

What really will matter about sovereignty on the ground, determining sovereignty are the soldiers fighting. After that declaration, what is striking to me have been the gains that the Ukrainian forces have made. With the case of Lyman, Russians themselves have admitted that, but the fighting also in Kherson down in the south, another one of the regions that Putin allegedly claimed to annex on Friday, is also experiencing advances from the Ukrainians. I think sovereignty will be determined by soldiers on the ground in these regions, not by pieces of paper signed by Putin in the Kremlin.

Janae Pierre: Talk to us about Putin's ceremony at the Kremlin on Friday. What was that ceremony like, and what did he say?

Michael McFaul: It was horrible. [chuckles] I just watched most of it. I speak Russian, so I watched it and to hear his tone, but your listeners should go and read it to get a sense of Putin's thinking. Sometimes here in the West, we have these conversations that are abstract about Russia as a state, and national interests, and it's all some cost-benefit analysis about the balance of power. I just encourage people to listen to what Putin says.

He calls us Satanists worshipers. This is a fight between good and evil. By the way, he barely mentions Ukraine. It's all about us. It's all about the United States and the West. He thinks he is fighting a war with us. That's the first impression.

Second, when they panned the room, I didn't see a lot of enthusiasm in the room. I think there's a lot of nervousness among Russian elites. When you're losing, people begin to point fingers. Subsequently, after that event, a lot of finger-pointing is going on to try to explain why Russia is losing.

The third thing I would say is just to remind everybody how outrageous this is. Even during the Cold War, there have been some episodes of annexation of course, but mostly throughout the Cold War, even when we were fighting between communism and capitalism, freedom and totalitarianism, we weren't annexing chunks of territory. That's what made last Friday something unique and tragic.

Janae Pierre: Ambassador, how does this annexation change the war?

Michael McFaul: So far, I would say it does not change the war, with one exception. In that speech. Mr. Putin again, not for the first time, hinted that the United States had set the precedent of using nuclear weapons in 1945, suggesting that he has the right to do so again. He has said in other speeches, and other officials have said that if Russia itself is attacked in an existential threat to the homeland, they have the right to use nuclear weapons.

After Friday, Putin is arguing that is now Russian territory that the Ukrainians are fighting, and pushing back on, and making advances. He, I think, has raised the specter of some use of a nuclear weapon. I personally still think it's a very low probability. I think he is trying to deter the West from providing more sophisticated weapons to the Ukrainians. Anytime a leader ever uses any threat of a nuclear weapon, that's a very scary moment.

Janae Pierre: Yes, absolutely. What does and doesn't this announcement tell us about Russia's progress, or the lack thereof, in this war?

Michael McFaul: I think it was a desperate move. It started about a week and a half ago when he called for a mass mobilization, 300,000 soldiers in Russia. As one Russian colleague of mine said, ''That's the beginning of the war for Russia." Remember, in February 24th when he launched his "special military operation," most Russians weren't affected by the war. It was far away. It wasn't on the news. Now with this special mobilization, it is a subject of discussion among all Russians, and I could be wrong but by my estimates, he's mobilized more Russians to leave Russia than to join the Army.

Second, I think he had to up the ante. He had to say, ''I'm making a bold move as a way to help justify this war." If you listen to his speech, he's always referring to the past.' These are territories that once were part of the Russian Empire. It's called Novorossiya. Katherine the Great took it over. He's now saying he's writing the wrong of decades past as an argument to help win support for this war. I don't know if it'll work, but that's the escalatory steps that he's taken in the last week.

Janae Pierre: You were formerly the US Ambassador from Russia. What have you been hearing from former and current Russian colleagues?

Michael McFaul: Different people, so friends of mine including people that have been opposed to this war since the original war began all the way back to 2014, they're apoplectic. They're despondent. They're embarrassed, by the way, for their country. It's hard to make the argument that there's Putin and Russians when you see tens of thousands of Russians rallying on Red Square, Friday, for this annexation. Russian economic elites that I know say this is a complete disaster that will put Russia back for decades. They're quiet, but they're despondent.

What's more interesting to me are not my friends, but to watch the debates on social media, you have this infighting now that, I think, was probably behind closed doors, and now it's public, people close to Putin saying his commanders are failing him.

The biggest thing is watching and listening to what I would call more middle-class Russians, just people that are apolitical, that were not thinking about the war, were not involved in politics. Now their sons are being called to go die in a war and they're asking questions on social media, "What is this war about? Why are we fighting? Ukraine was really threatening us?" Each of those families are having to make really, really hard decisions about what to do.

I know one family, for instance, where the father supports Putin's war, has been watching it the entire time. His kids are much more skeptical. When his son was drafted, or faced the threat of draft, he changed his mind, and he helped his son get out of the country. Those are the kinds of hard decisions that people are making every day. If you look at public opinion polls, there's a lot of concern about this war. That concern, in my prediction, will only rise as the war goes on.

Janae Pierre: Last week, the Nord Stream pipeline began leaking, which President Biden described as likely sabotage. What do you make of the leak? What could be the motivation behind it for some entities sabotaging it?

Michael McFaul: Honestly, I don't know. I've read what you've read. There was sabotage, but our government hasn't assigned who's done it. I don't want to speculate about it. I think it is an instance that the war has long-term unintended consequences, including beyond the borders of Ukraine.

Janae Pierre: On Friday, Ukraine submitted an application for accelerated accession to NATO. What is the status of Ukraine's application to the organization, and what's the likelihood that they are accepted into NATO?

Michael McFaul: While that is a brilliant move by President Zelenskyy, just to remind the world and to remind NATO allies that they have those aspirations, I don't think anything will change anytime soon. Remember, all NATO countries have to vote to bring in Ukraine. There are some countries that would not want to bring Ukraine in while they're fighting a war with Russia because that would mean they would have to fight a war with Russia.

I do think, de facto, the level of military cooperation between NATO and Ukraine today is extraordinary. When the war ends, I hope that that relationship will continue to grow because Ukraine will need some kind of security guarantees that they won't be attacked again by Mr. Putin.

Janae Pierre: Quickly, Ambassador, where do you see things going with this war in the short term, and where do you see it going in the long term?

Michael McFaul: I hope the Ukrainian forces liberate their territory and declare peace. I fear that it's going to drag on for a long time.

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Janae Pierre: Michael McFaul is a former US ambassador to Russia from 2012 until 2014. He's currently a professor of political science at Stanford University. Ambassador McFaul, thanks so much for your time today.

Michael McFaul: Thanks for having me.

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