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Melissa Harris Perry: I'm Melissa Harris Perry and this is The Takeaway. Thanks for being with us.

Jake Sullivan: We believe that the world must mobilize to counter this Russian aggression should those tanks roll across the border as we anticipate they very well may do in the coming hours or days.

Melissa Harris Perry: For days, the Biden White House warned that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent. After a weekend of heightened tensions, the Ukraine border crisis entered a new phase on Monday.

Vladimir Putin: [Russian language]

Melissa Harris Perry: President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of two separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine. They call themselves Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, or DPR and LPR. Now they are not recognized by Ukraine or by other international actors as separate nations. But these areas have had considerable autonomy and been governed by Russian backed separatist since the 2015 Minsk Peace Accord.

Now, shortly after Putin's formal recognition, the Kremlin ordered Russian troops to enter the DPR and LPR on what the Russian Defense Ministry is describing as a peacekeeping mission. For weeks, thousands of Russian troops have been stationed along the Ukrainian border. Since December, Putin has tried to pressure NATO to decrease its military presence in Eastern Europe and commit to disallowing Ukraine from ever joining the Alliance.

Joining me now is Yaroslav Trofimov, who is Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. Yaroslav, thank you for joining us.

Yaroslav Trofimov: Great to be here.

Melissa Harris Perry: Now first, what do we know about what has happened since the Kremlin ordered the troops into these regions?

Yaroslav Trofimov: Well, now that the shelling along the contact line that has already picked up about a week ago has intensified, the big question of course is whether these troops will stay in these statelets, the Donetsk and Luhansk statelets, that have how long been controlled by Russia, or will try to punch through. These two republics claim as their territory about two thirds of the Donetsk and Luhansk [unintelligible 00:02:31] that they don’t actually control, including the big cities like Mariupol. The big war in Kiev, where I am now is that they will try to seize these areas by force now that they have the backing of the regular Russian army.

Melissa Harris Perry: Now, remind us about the 2015 Minsk Accord, and how that agreement was reached in the first place, and what's been happening in these regions since that annexation of Crimea.

Yaroslav Trofimov: The problem started in 2014 when there was an apprising in Kiev against a pro-Russia president, against his decision to cancel an association agreement with the European Union. Following that apprising, President Yanukovych fled to Russia and Russia tried to ferment separatist feelings in many areas of Eastern and Southern Ukraine.

There were unsuccessful in most of them, but they did have success in these two regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, after which there was a Ukrainian attempt to retake the militarily. Ukraine was successful in many parts of those regions, but then Russia sent more troops and tanks across the border.

In 2015, one was when the latest round of major fighting happened imposing the [unintelligible 00:03:40] Minsk Agreements, under which Ukraine was committed to enter into negotiations and to [unintelligible 00:03:49] interpretation grant these regions say in the national political setup. Since then, these talks didn't go anywhere, and by officially recognizing these two statelets, Russia effectively abrogated the Minsk Agreements and withdrew from them.

Melissa Harris Perry: President Putin has been describing the Russian relationship with Ukraine as basically none of the business of NATO allies or of the west. He's saying that these nations, Russia and Ukraine, are connected by shared culture, history, that Ukraine is part of, my understanding, he said this spiritual connection to the Russian people. Talk to me about Ukrainians living in the Eastern regions, these separatist regions and whether or not they genuinely want to be separate nations or statelets as you've described them here, or whether or not this really rhetoric from Moscow.

Yaroslav Trofimov: Well, there is a giant disconnect between what people think in Ukraine and what the President Putin. As president Putin said yesterday, he believes that Ukrainians and Russians are the same people and Ukrainians really want to be close to Russia, but unfortunately, they're governed by a Western sponsored sort clique and a regime as he put it.

In Ukraine, there is [unintelligible 00:05:06] of language. About half the country speaks Ukrainian and the other half speaks Russian as their first language, although they all understand Ukrainian too, but that doesn't mean that those Russian speakers want to be part of Russia. The current president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy grew up speaking Russian in a Jewish family. A lot of the ministries in his government are also Russian speakers as a many leaders of the Ukrainian military so language really doesn't mean this affinity with Russia. Even in Donetsk and Luhansk, which are really two small parts of Eastern Ukraine, when the fighting started in 2014, [unintelligible 00:05:41] pledged to Ukraine, not to Russia. Even now in Kiev, there are tens of thousands of refugees from there who are prominent in the political life.

Melissa Harris Perry: As you talk about this disconnect between how the people of Ukraine and how Vladimir Putin is talking about this, talk to me about the people of Russia. What do we know for example about what the Russian media are saying about all of this and where Russian public opinion stands on the possibility of engaging in a full-scale war?

Yaroslav Trofimov: Well, Russia doesn't really have a free media to speak up more. All the main TV channels are controlled by the state. Ever since 2014, they were pumping out the same message that, neo-Nazis came to power through a coup in Ukraine and they want to slaughter everybody who dares to speak Russian. In a way, Russia has been brainwashed for this image of the brotherly Ukrainian nation oppressed by Western installed radicals. A lot of them do buy these warnings by President Putin that well, Russian speakers are under threat Ukraine and something must be done to protect them.

Melissa Harris Perry: Does that lead to public support for war? That's still another level of commitment of national all resources.

Yaroslav Trofimov: Right. Russia still claims it doesn't want war, even though he's deployed some 190,000 troops around Ukraine. If it does enter a war, it will say, “Well, the Ukrainians attacked us first. The Russian intelligence service we’re just the other day that they have spotted Ukrainian soldiers trying to invade Russia and they killed five of them, something that Kiev denied as could be fabrication. Russia's narrative is that, “They're the ones attacking us, we have to defend ourselves,” which is obviously the narrative that Russia used, for example, in 1939 when it invaded Finland on the made up attack of enemy shells by Finish troops.

Melissa Harris Perry: This weekend, there was a tested agreement in principle for diplomatic conversations, for talks between President Biden and Vladimir Putin. What is happening with that?

Yaroslav Trofimov: Well, Russia is a very centralized state and President Putin decides pretty much about himself and he's even his closest advisors don't necessarily know what's going on. It's very hard to predict his next move. He's also likes to be a master of tactical and strategic surprise. It's true that just hours before his decision to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, and the Kremlin issued a statement saying, “We are committed to the diplomatic solutions, including talks on the Minsk Agreement,” that he canceled just hours later,

Melissa Harris Perry: This potential breach of the border, this movement into these regions, this recognition of these statelets, does this constitute an escalation to the point of saying, “We've now entered into military phase,” or is this still saber rattling? Is this is this still brinksmanship?

Yaroslav Trofimov: Well, it is definitely an escalation because by doing this, President Putin and Russia have basically violated the territorial integrity of Ukraine and agreed that those areas should be split up from Ukraine. But to be honest, Russian troops, overtly and not very overly have been in those areas since 1214. Somehow, Donetsk and Luhansk republics have more tanks in their armies than Britain or France in their entire arsenal. It's not that the Russians haven't been fighting there all this time.

Of course, with actual Russian troops being there openly, they could use things like air power that they haven't used until now, and be much more formidable opponent for the Ukraine forces.

Melissa Harris Perry: Can you back up to the point you just made about the level of weaponry? Help me to understand that a bit more.

Yaroslav Trofimov: In the Russians narrative, these republics are run by local miners, coal miners and factory workers who somehow assembled at home this arsenal. They do have hundreds of main battle tags, more than Britain, more than France, and they have some of the most advanced weaponry in the world's arsenal. The one thing they don't have so far is airpower. . That's one asset where the formal introduction of Russian troops could bring to the table and that’s one area where the Ukrainian military is completely outmatched.

Melissa Harris Perry: Okay so what does this mean for the NATO response? Even as you’re saying airpower, again, I live in North Carolina where Fort Bragg is here in our state and we’ve been watching the deployment, particularly of the 82nd Airborne over the course of the past week or so. Lots of young people heading into Eastern Europe at this time. It all points being told that there won’t be engagement in Ukraine. But your point about airpower and watching the 82nd Airborne from here in North Carolina heading over to Eastern Europe, I'm wondering what this could potentially mean, again, about NATO’s response and even about what may be happening for US troops?

Yaroslav Trofimov: Well, the US hasn’t been very clear that no American troops will be going to Ukraine. The United States has withdrawn all of its diplomats from Ukraine. The embassy in Kyiv has been empty for more than a week and just the other day even the outpost of the western border with Poland was also evacuated. The US does not want to be in the way if the Russians pour over the border and try to conquer the Ukrainian capital. NATO's response has been in supplying weapons to the Ukrainian forces.

These are weapons that are useful more so for tactical engagements, for guerilla warfare really, the shoulder-launched missiles, tactical tanks and helicopters. But they have not provided Ukraine with sophisticated air defenses or even non-sophisticated air defense that could allow the Ukrainians to stop airstrikes, bombardments of their cities, or missile attacks from Russian forces. It's been helped but quite limited help.

The real assistance right now is coming with the diplomatic front. We’re seeing the European countries adopting sanctions. Germany is freezing the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that would have allowed Russia to supply natural gas to Europe by passing Ukraine. There's talk of more sanctions, of course, should the current steps be followed by an outright military operation to retake more land by Russian forces.

Melissa Harris Perry: Sanctions are likely to have a real impact on the people of Russia not exclusively on the state. I’m wondering, based on what you were just saying previously about how the Russian people have understood what this narrative is as a result of being bombarded by state media for the past, whatever, seven, eight years now, how an economic crisis might also be read in that context.

Yaroslav Trofimov: Well, sanctions, obviously, will hurt the overall Russian economy but they’re quite targeted. The European sanctions proposed, for example, individual sanctions against every single member of the Russian parliament that’s supposed to vote to endorse this recognition. The gas pipeline sanctions, they also, they have a leverage because, right now, Ukraine is very important to Russia. That’s the pipelines through which some of the main pipelines through which Russia exports natural gas to Europe go through Ukraine.

Now if Nord Stream 2 were to proceed, Ukraine will no longer be getting that money and those untie Russia's hands when it comes to Ukraine. That’s an instrument that actually affects the calculations of the Russian government because the income from this natural gas is a vital source of income for the Russian economy.

Melissa Harris Perry: Just one last question for you. It’s about the people of Ukraine right now and what the mood, concern, and preparations of the people of Ukraine are at this moment.

Yaroslav Trofimov: There's calm in the streets. There is no panic. There’s no hoarding. People haven’t run out of toilet paper or basic staples in the supermarkets. The restaurants are full in the evening but there's also disbelief. Why would, in the 21st century, some foreign power decide to invade a capital city of three million people that’s living their peaceful life like every other European capital? But then we’re also getting ready for a fight. People are training for the local territorial defense units. People are joining the military. They're not ready to surrender.

Melissa Harris Perry: Maybe I should ask one last question and that is can you respond to that hypothetical that you laid out there? Why in the 21st century would a foreign nation invade a peaceful European capital of some three million people?

Yaroslav Trofimov: Well, I think because President Putin is trying to correct what he sees as the greatest, as he actually put it, the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century, which for him was the collapse of the Soviet Union, a process during which Russia lost control of Ukraine.

Melissa Harris Perry: Yaroslav Trofimov is the Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. Thanks so much for joining us.

Yaroslav Trofimov: Glad to be here. Thank you.

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