TiVo


October 18, 2002


BROOKE GLADSTONE: By now you've probably heard of TiVo -- the little black box that digitally records your chosen programs for you to watch whenever you please, and if you please, minus the commercials. It's revolutionized the way its users watch TV and sent a scare through advertisers. It's the wave of the future. But as Brendan Koerner wrote in a recent issue of Slate.com, the future may come too late for TiVo -- his story titled TiVo We Hardly Knew Ye -- was practically an obituary even though the early adopters who worship the technology are totally hooked.

BRENDAN KOERNER: I'll tell you, I have a friend, close friend of mine who recently got a TiVo -- I haven't seen the guy since. There's a tremendous [LAUGHTER] consumer loyalty to this product.

BROOKE GLADSTONE: But they are still the few and the brave. According to your article, TiVo isn't going to last long. Why not?

BRENDAN KOERNER:Well I don't think so. I think that talking here about they are the kind of revolutionizers of this technology, the what we call the "first mover" - the first company into the fray -- unfortunately I think history shows that in technology the first mover often doesn't last for the long run. I think a good example of a first mover that tanked quite recently is Commodore Computers. They had a product that came out in 1985, I believe, called the Amiga which was this amazing full color screen computer with great multimedia features. It had music programming, video editors, that sort of thing that we now take for granted in all PC's. But they were about 10, 15 years ahead of the curve, and so there wasn't really a market for it at that time. And so it's very frustrating for example for Commodore shareholders and Commodore employees to see the MacIntosh nowadays incorporating many Amiga-like features and Commodore bankrupt; they have nothing to show for all their efforts.

BROOKE GLADSTONE:Wasn't part of the problem with the Amiga that it was just a little too complicated for the average American technophobe which let's face it is a big part of the market, and is TiVo like the Amiga in this respect -- just too many plugs and buttons?

BRENDAN KOERNER: I think that's true, and for you know a geek or a journalist like myself it doesn't seem that complicated, but I think that people want things, especially entertainment devices, to be as simple to learn as possible. The Amiga they wanted people to plug into their home entertainment centers, and this is in the mid-'80s -- people had just gotten, you know, VCRs a couple of years beforehand, so they weren't quite ready to make that next leap. I think the same thing with the TiVo -- it's not complicated, but for someone that still has their VCR in their living room, going through these computerized menus on their screen is a little bit complex.

BROOKE GLADSTONE:But as you say a lot of the Amiga technology was later incorporated into other items. What do you think is going to happen to the TiVo technology - is that going to begin showing up in later products?

BRENDAN KOERNER: I think there already is actually. You're already seeing some cable companies talking about incorporating TiVo-like technology into their cable boxes, so therefore you'll have this capacity to digitally record shows, you know, already packaged in with their cable box -- no muss, no fuss -- for consumers. I also think PCs are going to start coming with this kind of software included so it's already in this box you already own; therefore no need to go out and get this kind of one trick pony sort of digital video recorder that TiVo is offering right now.

BROOKE GLADSTONE: So does that mean that TiVo goes under or does TiVo merely sell its special technology?

BRENDAN KOERNER:Well I think licensing their technology's going to be a big part of their future. I also think the fact that they have to tie brand name recognition, and people use TiVo as a verb, and I'm going to TiVo that show or this show -- I think bodes well for them maybe being bought out by a bigger player down the line. But in terms of their current business strategy of having standalone video recorders, I don't think that's the future for the technology.

BROOKE GLADSTONE: And yet some of these defunct first movers acquire a certain cult status, don't they.

BRENDAN KOERNER:They really do. And all you have to do is scour the web and enter in the word Amiga into a search engine, you'll find plenty of fan sites and fan pages. I call them "nerd aficionados," and I think the same thing will happen to TiVo down the line.

BROOKE GLADSTONE: All right. Brendan Koerner, thank you very much.

BRENDAN KOERNER: Thanks a million.

BROOKE GLADSTONE: Freelance reporter Brendan Koerner's last article - TiVo We Hardly Knew Ye - appeared in Slate.com.