[music]

Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. We've just talked about the latest Trump election fraud case. Now a 2024 politics addendum that runs right through New York. Kadia Goba covers Congress at the news organization Semafor, and she's been writing lately about the hot races expected in and around New York City next year that could determine which party controls Congress. She's got an article about how New York may test the limits of the power of abortion to determine congressional race outcomes. How immigration might replace crime as a central flashpoint, especially for Republicans.

Crime is seen as a defining issue that greatly benefited Republicans in the New York swing districts last year, remember? She reports that Brooklyn and Manhattan Congressman Jerrold Nadler, former chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, might have a new challenger, former Trump attorney Michael Cohen. Kadia, thanks for coming on. Welcome back to WNYC.

Kadia: Thank you for having me, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Michael Cohen, who went to prison in the Stormy Daniels hush money cover-up but has since turned on Donald Trump? That Michael Cohen?

Kadia: That Michael Cohen. The same Michael Cohen who, as you said, served a little over a year in jail because he was found guilty of campaign finance and the collusion with Donald Trump and Stormy Daniels. Yes, that Michael Cohen possibly is running against Jerry Nadler.

Brian Lehrer: Would he be running as a Democrat or Republican, or as Barack Obama once asked about Trump, as a joke?

Kadia: [chuckles] That's the most interesting part of this. He is running as a Democrat, but I will note that he ran for City Council in 2003 as a Republican. It's an interesting switch. You can't help but consider or look at the fact that this could be something related to Trump or Trump's indictment, and a way that he could, I don't know, bolster his profile. We see him all the time on TV. I just think a party switch is quite interesting.

Brian Lehrer: Would he run to Nadler's right in a Democratic primary on specific issues? Is there a political premise to his potential run that's anything like that?

Kadia: Who knows? I tried to push him on the idea, and he just said he wasn't ready to talk about it because he hasn't decided yet. The only thing I could get out of him is that he is on the East Side of Manhattan and that people were urging him to run. Which people? I've yet to understand who.

Brian Lehrer: Well, put that race into a larger context. Let's say Michael Cohen does run. Do you see a multi-candidate challenge to Nadler? He got challenged in the last round.

Kadia: He got challenged the round before that and then the maps coordinated so that he ran against Maloney, a former rep, in which he beat out Maloney. A lot of people, there is this idea that some people want someone new in that district because Nadler has been-- he's a 30-year incumbent at this point. I'm not sure-- I would say Michael Cohen would have a huge battle.

I want to point this out though. Because Republicans have been presenting this impeachment idea, the possible impeachment of the president, Biden, there is a chance that this could be a little overwhelming for Nadler if he does have a challenger. Because remember, he's the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee who is essentially responsible for the Democrat side of an impeachment inquiry. This could be very interesting and a bit overwhelming for Nadler. We'll see if there are more challenges coming up.

Brian Lehrer: We will see. All right. Let's go on to your article on testing the limits of Democrats' abortion gains in New York's congressional races. That was the headline of one of your articles. Why does the headline put it that way?

Kadia: Well, see, people probably understand-- Your listeners probably understand that abortion right after the overturning of Roe v. Wade played a central part in Democrats' messaging during the 2022 midterms. Now we're two years out. I'm not sure if it'll have the same impact, but nevertheless, Democrats had a lot of gains. Where that didn't work out so well is in New York, and that's because Republicans really pushed this whole crime and economy. It worked, especially for the suburbs, who saw an uptick in crime, or people who were commuting into the city and saw all the reports around train violence or subway violence, I should say.

I remember talking to Representative D'Esposito who essentially told me that he would probably vote for a 15-week ban. He is a Republican in New York's 4th congressional district. He still won his race.

I think it'll be interesting to see where Democrats vary on this throughout the country. If they're going to message the same in New York because again, that was a key state. New York became a swing state and it was a key state in determining the House majority. It'll be interesting to see if they change their message up a little, and how they do that.

Brian Lehrer: Do you think it matters that abortion rights are considered generally safe in New York State, and so it's harder to make that issue salient for Democratic turnout because they don't really think that abortion is going to be made illegal nationally and relevant to Congress therefore?

Kadia: Yes. It's obviously a factor. I'm not going to say that the abortion issue didn't change the minds of some New Yorkers, but I will say that even Republicans, to your point, don't know how to message on abortion in the state. For a challenger, for a candidate to openly say that he would vote for an abortion ban is huge. I just think voters are more conscious of the crime and bail reform that kind of tanked in New York. They're just prioritizing a different way than the rest of the country, probably attributed to them assuming that abortion rights are so protected in New York.

Brian Lehrer: Also, when you talk about D'Esposito supporting a 15-week ban, I haven't seen this tested yet. I wonder if Republicans in some cases, and maybe in that district on Long Island, will come out and frame it as "I support a woman's unquestioned right to choose up to 15 weeks. After that, I think we have to consider the fetus a life; a person." That's different than, let's say, the Lindsey Graham 15-week ban, which doesn't go to the right to choose for the first 15 weeks. It just says that's the maximum that any state could allow abortion rights in his federal legislation.

I'm just curious if you think that D'Esposito or any other Republicans are going to aim for this sort of middle road, if it even exists, in the American electorate.

Kadia: It's a really good question, and I would actually counter some of that with throughout the country, especially in the South, there's a bunch of six-week bans or permanent abortion bans. Me personally, I think there is a place for so-called moderate Republicans to message on something that's not as conservative as some of the other states. However-- this is a question I've been asking a lot of stakeholders and Democratic operatives. Their point is that, "Well no, we think it's a slam dunk because people just don't want their rights infringed upon, period."

I don't know how that's going to play out in the actual voting booth, but that is the Democrats' point, and that's where they're standing on this. That people just don't want any abortion bans at all.

Brian Lehrer: Immigration, you say 2024 could be an immigration election in New York. I could obviously see it in a mayoral race, but you mean in congressional races?

Kadia: Oh, definitely. I already see it in upstate New York in Langworthy's district. How migrant people were sent upstate because of the housing crisis in New York City, and there's been a big national attention on rape and some violence associated with migrants coming to the area. I know from sources that Republicans are messaging on this specifically, tying crime with the immigration issue that is happening in New York City.

We also have to think about how this is becoming a New York problem when for many, many years - decades, one would argue - it's always been centered around the US-Mexico border in Texas and in Arizona. In my opinion, it just gives Republicans a really good messaging platform moving on to the 2024 race, and directly impacts the presidential.

Brian Lehrer: Any indications yet how Democrats running for Congress here or for reelection from Congress will defend? Because I think I hear you that Republicans will have a simpler line, as they often do on things. "Close the border. We want a controlled immigration system, not an uncontrolled one." The Democrats, look how much Mayor Adams twists himself into pretzels to say he's for immigration. He's doing everything he can for this, but they're also ruining New York because there are too many of them. Bizarre mixed messaging that comes out and infuriates people on both sides.

How about the Democrats in or running for Congress around here? Any indication yet how they'll walk that line of supporting asylum seekers but also supporting control?

Kadia: Yes. I think Mayor Adams gets a lot of criticism because he has been outspoken. I think people are contrasting that with other lawmakers in the state, especially members of Congress who, as I've reported, are just-- They might privately say that they're disgruntled about what's going on, but they're not criticizing the administration. Their approach has been to send letters about certain measures that they want. They are pushing for a national disaster.

The Biden administration, good luck with that because he hasn't called for an emergency declaration.

Brian Lehrer: Right. That sounds more-

Kadia: He hasn't called for an emergency declaration--

Brian Lehrer: That sounds more money here. That's what the declaration would be. Right. They want faster work authorization and things like that.

Kadia: Yes. He hasn't done that in the border states, right? It's going to be extremely hypocritical for him to come to the aid of New York and, again, just give Republicans a talking point, "Here you go." This is a presidential year. We are going into a presidential election year, so good luck with getting any respite from the administration. Although they have pushed back a little and said that they've given New York a lot of money and more money than many states in the country that are experiencing the same problem.

Brian Lehrer: We'll be covering and talking about the New York swing districts a lot on this show in 2024. If you're still on this beat, we'll definitely be talking. Just tell me one last thing. They haven't drawn the district lines yet for Congress, for New York, for 2024 because it's all bound up in court and New York's tortured districting process. Do you know when that might be resolved? Even know what the districts are that they're competing in?

Kadia: I don't. There are several processes that they need to go through. Ultimately there's a bunch of predictions that the state legislature will ultimately determine what those state lines look like. All the people I talk to, Democrats especially, seem extremely optimistic about maps they haven't seen yet. I'll leave you with that. [chuckles]

Brian Lehrer: Kadia Goba covers Congress for the news organization Semafor. Thanks, Kadia.

Kadia: Thanks, Brian.

Copyright © 2023 New York Public Radio. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use at www.wnyc.org for further information.

New York Public Radio transcripts are created on a rush deadline, often by contractors. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of New York Public Radio’s programming is the audio record.