[MUSIC]

Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. If you took time from obsessing on the eclipse yesterday to take in any political news, you probably know that Donald Trump staked out a new or is it new position on abortion rights, now that there is such a backlash ever since he fulfilled his 2016 campaign promise to get Roe v. Wade overturned by appointing anti-Roe justices to the Supreme Court.

He appointed three. They did what Trump promised as you all know. In elections and referenda ever since, voters even in red states have made it clear that, by and large, they want women to have the right to choose. A little Trump history here. In 1999, when he was first being looked at as a potential presidential candidate, he said this on NBC's Meet the Press with host Tim Russert when asked if he supports even late-term abortion rights.

Donald Trump: I'm very pro-choice. I hate the concept of abortion. I hate it. I hate everything it stands for. I cringe when I listen to people debating the subject, but I just believe in choice.

Brian Lehrer: Trump in 1999. When he was running in 2016, he had the memorable exchange with Chris Matthews on MSNBC, which ended like this.

Chris Matthews: Do you believe in punishment for abortion, yes or no, as a principle?

Donald Trump: The answer is that there has to be some form of punishment.

Chris Matthews: For the woman?

Donald Trump: Yes, there has to be some form.

Brian Lehrer: In '99, he was pro-choice. By 2016, he wanted women behind bars. Yesterday, he released a video on Truth Social, which answered one question but begged several others.

Donald Trump: My view is now that we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land. In this case, the law of the state. Many states will be different. Many will have a different number of weeks or some will have more conservative than others and that's what they will be. At the end of the day, this is all about the will of the people. You must follow your heart or, in many cases, your religion or your faith.

Brian Lehrer: Very confusing clip actually. We'll discuss why and talk broadly about abortion continuing to develop as an issue in the presidential and congressional campaigns this year with Molly Ball, senior political correspondent for The Wall Street Journal. Hi, Molly. Welcome back to WNYC.

Molly Ball: Hi. Thanks for having me.

Brian Lehrer: There are the things Trump said yesterday and the things he didn't say. We have more clips. By way of background first, why did he say anything in a new video on the issue rather than just let his record of overturning Roe stand on its own?

Molly Ball: Well, that's a very good question. I think he seems to want to put this issue to rest. As you say, the statement that he did put out raised as many questions as it answered, so it certainly didn't do that. However, he has been under a lot of pressure to take a position on the many lingering questions that the overturning of Roe v. Wade created because that Supreme Court decision nearly two years ago now did send the decision-making back to the states.

It raised a lot of questions about how we move forward as a nation, whether there ought to be some kind of federal legislation creating a framework for when abortion is or is not allowed, how states should administer this, things like medication abortion, which is currently before the Supreme Court. There's all sorts of policy areas that that Supreme Court decision actually opened up, and that we have seen policymakers in various states and at the federal level be engaged with. Certainly, activists on both sides of this issue do not see this as a closed issue and there's a lot for politicians to take a stand on.

Brian Lehrer: To take one of the things you just mentioned, first, the Supreme Court case that they're currently deciding on whether to ban the abortion medication mifepristone. Has Trump taken a position on that? Do you know?

Molly Ball: He has not. I have not seen anywhere where he has even commented on that. That's one of the many outstanding questions that he has yet to answer.

Brian Lehrer: On what he did say yesterday, he said leave it to the states, but he did not say explicitly that he would oppose any kind of national restrictions if a Republican Congress were to send him some, though a lot of people are hearing it that way. Leave it to the states means no federal ban. Is it clear that he drew the line somewhere?

Molly Ball: [chuckles] Absolutely not. If anything, it seems like a message that was almost designed to be unclear. He has said in the past many times that he believes there could be some kind of accommodation or compromise that pleases everyone, but I think we all know that this is an issue where you can't please everyone because it is so divisive, so polarizing, and because people do feel so passionately on all sides of this issue.

He seems to have wanted to take a position that would be perceived as moderate. He said many times that he views this issue as a political loser for the Republican Party and that's a statement that checks out. We have seen public opinion really move toward the pro-abortion rights side of this issue in the years since Roe was overturned. We've seen it be a very galvanizing, mobilizing issue for voters, if not always for the Democratic Party and its candidates.

Trump doesn't want to lose the presidential election by taking a very hardcore pro-life stance. He was criticized by many voices in the pro-life movement for the stand that he did take because of that and because, as you say, there are a lot of anti-abortion rights activists who would like to see some kind of federal limitation, who would like to see a national framework passed by Congress that would say no abortions after a certain number of weeks.

We've seen that proposed in Congress and, in fact, get a lot of Republican sponsors in the Senate right up to before Roe was overturned. Trump, as you said, strongly implied that he would not support something like that, but he did not come out and say that he would veto such a bill if the Congress were able to pass it. That's one of the many ambiguities that his statement left.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, your reaction to Donald Trump's latest position on abortion and your interpretations of his latest position on abortion. How do you understand it? He's getting criticism from the left. He's getting criticism from the right. Anybody like exactly where he landed yesterday or appear to land or think you understand what would happen in a Trump presidency if one thing or another happened, maybe an abortion ban passed by a Republican Congress and sent to his desk? Does it sound to you that he would veto it?

What about an abortion rights bill published by a Democratic Congress and sent to his desk? Democrats are certainly talking about trying to ensconce Roe into national law and have that much of an abortion right nationally. Do you get from the statement yesterday that Trump would sign that or veto it or nothing? 212-433-WNYC. Anything else you want to say about abortion rights as an issue and the way it's developing in the presidential campaign and, for that matter, congressional campaigns and referendum campaigns?

We're going to talk about Florida, for example, which some people say might even be back in play as a swing state this year for the presidential because of the way abortion rights is playing out there right now. We'll talk about that. Anybody from Florida listening who wants to chime in on the new six-week ban there and the abortion rights referendum that's going to be on the ballot there this fall? Hello, Floridians. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Call or text with Molly Ball, senior political correspondent for The Wall Street Journal.

On the right, serious abortion restrictionists are unhappy that he didn't explicitly endorse some kind of national ban. Do reporters have enough access to him these days that they can soon ask him, "Would you veto such a ban if they sent you a bill?" You're saying he didn't rule it out, but it sounds like he wants it left up to the states. Do campaign trail reporters have access to ask him to rule it out or not rule it out?

Molly Ball: Not so far. I think it's a question he'll continue to get as he does interviews or town halls or debates or what have you, whatever kind of public appearances. He's been campaigning somewhat sparingly in the initial weeks of this general election period, but we've obviously got a long way to go. His campaign hasn't responded or hasn't given definitive answers when we have put this kind of questions to them.

Because it is such an obvious open question and because it is an issue that the Biden campaign wants to keep alive very badly and sees as potentially their most important winning issue in this election, it's certainly not something that's going to go away, I think. You mentioned the pro-life side and some of the criticism he's getting from the right. Part of that is, of course, that they would like to see some kind of national ban proposed and passed in Congress.

Part of that also is that they realize that leaving this issue to the states is likely to lead to more access to abortion. We have seen already that in the seven states that have had ballot measures on abortion so far, even quite red states like Kentucky and Montana and Ohio, every single state has voted on the abortion rights side of that particular ballot measure. The more this issue is left to the states, the more states are likely to pass these referenda, including, as you mentioned, Florida and probably also Arizona, two big swing states that are likely to have abortion on the ballot this year.

The one more point that I want to squeeze in here is just what a significant unknown this is. Because we have to remember, it's been less than two years since Roe v. Wade was overturned. This is the first presidential election in which this is going to be a live issue. We just don't know how those things are going to interact and how this is going to play out.

Brian Lehrer: Listener texts, "I enjoy watching Trump squirm about this. I have no doubt he has never objected to abortion and doesn't now. He was quoted off mic more than once saying that the Supreme Court decision lost Republican suburban women, but the most religious and fanatical wing of his party insists on this. Trying to please everyone will please no one."

Molly, did you see Michelle Goldberg's New York Times column and reaction? Headline is, Trump Says Abortion Will Be Left to the States. Don’t Believe Him, and starts by citing something called the Comstock Act, which we've talked about before on this show. It actually came up in the context of the mifepristone Supreme Court case. The Comstock Act that Michelle Goldberg points out, his allies on the right are going to try to resurrect the relevance of. Are you familiar with the Comstock Act? Because I have a feeling this is not the last we're going to hear of it.

Molly Ball: Well, I think Michelle's column as well as the listener's text both point to something that makes Democrats nervous about Trump, which is that he is not perceived as personally opposed to abortion. Voters do view him as personally a moderate, even a libertine with his history of a loose personal life. They see him as someone who probably personally doesn't have a problem with abortion rights.

That could mean that for a lot of moderate or independent voters, people who are in the middle of the electorate but who favor abortion rights, they might be willing to give him more of a hearing than a Republican who is viewed as more of a staunch opposition to abortion like Mike Pence. Part of what I think the task of the Democrats and the Biden campaign as they see it is to talk about things like the Comstock Act, talk about the executive actions that a president can take that would restrict abortion rights, talk about the many ways that Trump and his allies on the religious right, in their view, would act to restrict abortion even if he is not seen as personally wanting to do that or even if he is saying that he personally wouldn't take such an action.

Brian Lehrer: Right. Just by way of background, folks, the Comstock Act as described by Michelle Goldberg in The Times today, the 19th-century anti-vice law named for the crusading bluenose, Anthony Comstock, who persecuted Margaret Sanger, arrested thousands and boasted of driving 15 of his targets to suicide, passed in 1873. The Comstock Act banned the mailing of every "obscene, lewd, lascivious, indecent, filthy, or vile article," including "every article, instrument, substance, drug, medicine, or thing intended for producing abortion."

As Michelle Goldberg points out, until quite recently, the Comstock Act was thought to be moot. I'll say it came up again in the context of that mifepristone case because the Comstock Act refers specifically to mailing of things that have to do with abortion. If people in illegal states now can order mifepristone and have it sent to them, they're arguing that the Comstock Act will rule that out.

The judges seem skeptical of that, but we will find out when they actually rule by the end of June. Molly, I want to ask you about the Lindsey Graham bill in particular that Trump apparently seriously considered embracing as his campaign position on abortion rights. Graham expressed disapproval yesterday that Trump didn't support his 15-week national ban, but reporting is that Trump considered adopting that as his own position to argue it's a popular compromised position. Do you know what's in the Graham bill?

Molly Ball: It is, as you say, a 15-week national limit on abortion. I believe it does have some exceptions. I don't know a lot of the details beyond that. As you say, it was viewed as a potential compromise. This was also something that, last year in the Virginia off-year elections, Governor Glenn Youngkin proposed, saying it would represent a compromised position.

The polling is very mixed on this idea of a 15-week limit. Most voters conceptually do favor some kind of limitation on the right to abortion, don't think it should be completely unlimited. When you try to get them on a number of weeks, again, it's not clear if this kind of a thing would have a majority support. I will say also, Graham and many others on the religious right did criticize Trump for the stance he took.

There was quite a bit of praise for it among Republicans, particularly who are running for office this year, who were relieved to have a position that they could land on where they could say to voters, "We're not going to do anything on this. You don't have to be afraid of what we would do." Of course, the Democrats disagree that that's the case. Voters may or may not believe it, but he was praised both conceptually by some Republicans who said, "This is federalism. This is what the framers always intended," and also by some Republicans who thought that it was a good political position.

Brian Lehrer: On this, listener texts, "I think Trump is right for once to not come out one way or another. Clearly, I disagree with the previous texter. People are not as divided on this and many other things as the politicians and media would like us to believe. In most European countries, abortion is legal with no strings attached up to 12 to 15 weeks and restricted thereafter," writes one listener.

I think it's also important to be clear about what the Lindsey Graham 15 weeks actually is. It's not a guaranteed abortion right for 15 weeks. It's saying that no state may legalize abortion for longer than 15 weeks, but any state may ban abortion entirely. It's a 15-week limit on what states can do. That's different than I think what Glenn Youngkin was trying to do as governor of Virginia even though he lost seats in the legislature on that.

I think he may have been trying actually for a compromised position that, although it was rejected, would've enshrined a 15-week right in Virginia law. What it looks to me from what I've read that Lindsey Graham is doing is trying to say, "No state may go beyond 15 weeks," but it's okay if a state like Florida has just done, tries to ban it completely or almost completely. That difference is really important, Molly, don't you think?

Molly Ball: I do. Thank you for pointing that out. You're right. There's a big difference between saying it's guaranteed up to 15 weeks and saying, "You can restrict under 15 weeks, but you can't go beyond that."

Brian Lehrer: Let me also replay the clip of Trump from yesterday and get your take on the confusing way this ends. If we are arguing about or not arguing about, but if we're discussing whether Trump is trying to sow as much confusion as clarity, listen carefully as he says, "Up to the states," but then implies that it should actually be up to each pregnant woman if they want to hear it that way.

Donald Trump: My view is now that we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both. Whatever they decide must be the law of the land. In this case, the law of the state. Many states will be different. Many will have a different number of weeks or some will have more conservative than others and that's what they will be. At the end of the day, this is all about the will of the people. You must follow your heart or, in many cases, your religion or your faith.

Brian Lehrer: Did you hear that at the end when he threw in, "You must follow your heart or your religion or your faith"? That makes it sound like he supports an individual's right to choose as opposed to a state legislature's right to choose for you, but I don't think that's his position.

Molly Ball: Interesting. I heard that more as a political statement saying you must follow your heart in terms of how you vote on this. As we know, this is something that Trump does all the time. He speaks in these confusing and ambiguous ways or he just flat-out takes multiple positions on an issue. He counts on that to muddy the waters and to allow people to hear whatever they want to hear. The hope is that people give him the benefit of the doubt and say, "Well, I think he's here," and someone else can hear it completely differently. For people who are looking to get to yes and voting for Donald Trump, it gives them permission to hear whatever they want to and his various conflicting statements.

Brian Lehrer: A bit of revisionist history that's not gotten a lot of attention from near the beginning of the video, the video was about four minutes. That was the heart of it that we just played where he's staking out a position or at least a position for the campaign. Closer to the beginning, he said this.

Donald Trump: Many people have asked me what my position is on abortion and abortion rights, especially since I was proudly the person responsible for the ending of something that all legal scholars, both sides, wanted and, in fact, demanded, be ended, Roe v. Wade. They wanted it ended.

Brian Lehrer: Both sides. [chuckles] Hello. Who does he think he's fooling with that? Something that both sides wanted it ended, Roe v. Wade. Go ahead, Molly.

Molly Ball: There has been liberal criticism of the Roe v. Wade decision. Notably, the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg said she thought it was a poorly reasoned decision. That may be what he's referring to as legal scholars who believe that the Roe v. Wade decision was flawed, whether or not they disagreed with the outcome of that decision and the existence of abortion rights. It's certainly not true as Trump said that all legal scholars or even a majority of legal scholars, particularly on the left side, believed that this was a terrible decision that needed to be overturned, but there is a kernel of truth there.

Brian Lehrer: Certainly, Justice Ginsburg would not have voted to overturn Roe v. Wade even if she thought it was decided the right outcome but on the wrong grounds back in the 1970s. That was, to me, infuriating/amusing when Trump was trying to say, "Everybody on both sides agree that Roe v. Wade needed to be overturned," because he's trying to take credit for what he did do, obviously, which was appoint the justices who made the difference with the Dobbs decision, which did overturn Roe.

Well, we're going to get to Florida. Actually, we're going to take a break here in just a second, and then we're going to look less at the Trump versus Biden position and more at the states. There is some interesting connective tissue because of the way Mike Pence criticized Donald Trump on his position on the Florida law, so we will get to that. Again, I'm curious if anybody listening right now in Florida wants to call in on what just happened there with the six-week ban that has now become the law of the state of Florida and the new abortion rights referendum that's going to be on the state in November.

Anybody want to be a news consumer scout from anywhere in Florida for us? 212-433-WNYC with Molly Ball from The Wall Street Journal, 212-433-9692. By the way, how do you see the Biden position because it is obviously a choice? He's not considered the strongest person in the world by abortion rights advocates, though he won't go against them, but he's not so outspoken on the issue, right?

Molly Ball: [sound cut] for the years be a little bit uncomfortable with this issue. He is an observant Catholic. Of course, the church is strongly against abortion. Earlier in his career, he took more moderate positions on this issue. I was in the 2020 campaign, in fact, that he reversed his support for the Hyde Amendment, which is the long-running congressional provision that prohibits federal funds from being used to pay for abortion.

He had been in favor of that for his entire career in the Senate and even as vice president. He reversed himself when he was trying to get Democratic votes in the run-up to the 2020 presidential campaign before he won that nomination. We've seen him be more and more vocal about this issue but still get uncomfortable. Many people noticed that in the State of the Union last month, there was a line in the speech about abortion and he didn't use the word. The word "abortion" was in the prepared text and he didn't use it.

He described his support for abortion rights without using the word "abortion." The vice president, Kamala Harris, has been the administration's main messenger on this issue. She's very comfortable talking about it. She has barnstormed the country, drumming up support for abortion rights. The Biden position is to reinstate Roe, to have national legislation, which Democratic senators have proposed, which would reinstate the provisions of Roe. I think we'll definitely hear him continue to talk about that despite his past discomfort.

Brian Lehrer: Biden has made it clear that if Congress sends him a bill making the protections of Roe v. Wade that used to exist, the law of the land at the federal level, that he would sign it?

Molly Ball: Absolutely.

Brian Lehrer: Claire in Hartsdale, you're on WNYC. Hi, Claire.

Claire: Hi. Oh my gosh. Well, I've been doing a lot of rap since before the 2016 election and I call myself, "The Nana Who Raps Instead of Naps." The one I want to read you today--

Brian Lehrer: You wrote a rap?

Claire: I've been writing raps. I've got over 30 raps. I want so badly for you to hear me to my rap someday, but this one is called Hypocrisy. You can stop me anytime.

Brian Lehrer: Okay, how long would it run if you did the whole thing?

Claire: I'm not sure. Maybe two minutes.

Brian Lehrer: All right. Well, let's start and we'll see how long we go.

Claire: You can stop me anytime, okay?

Brian Lehrer: Go ahead, Claire. We are all yours.

[MUSIC - The Nana Who Raps Instead of Naps: Hypocrisy]

Hypocrisy, autocracy, undoing all democracy,

All because you cannot seem to face

Putting self in another's place

Like pregnant women in dire straits

Who claims some power

To control their fates

But won't let doctors vaccinate

Because after you controls your fate

You think the unborn it's wrong to halt

But baby wolves you'll kill to a fault

And go to battle and kill full adults

And make of guns full-scale cults

Why don't you look at all this stuff

That's hypocritical alt-right bluff

You couldn't care less for women's rights

You only care for bullying and fights

Well, time is up for hypocrites

because women are done with your hissy fits

We make a path for human race

Without a mother, you lack of face

You'd lack a body, a life on Earth

It's up to her your earthly birth

And every birth is her own choice

She owns her body and her voice

And you do not, do not, do not

Women's rights aren't sold or bought

If you are Taliban or Texan

Your bullying is just as vexing

Imposing your will onto me

Forgetting that each one is free

Just like you will refuse the mask

Protecting all is all we ask

But why do you say no to that?

Because it feels imposed and flat

So can you feel how women feel

When you all claim to take the wheel

And put controls on someone's life

And caused great pain and untold strife?

If you believe this land

To be the land of the brave

And of the free

Then take your mitts off others' lives

And go back inside your own beehives

And contemplate the wrong you've done

By trying to arm-twist everyone

And make amends and a new day

When all of us we all can say

I respect you and you respect me

And let us all vow to agree

That all of us, all equally

Deserve to be just to be free

Free to be you

Free to be me, whoopee.

Claire: Huh, you let me read the whole thing.

Brian Lehrer: Haha, whoopee. It ends on the word "whoopee." Claire, that was awesome and you delivered it so well. Have you ever gone to a rap battle?

Claire: No, I haven't. [chuckles] This is the only one I really know by heart actually, but I got a lot more.

Brian Lehrer: You did that by heart?

Claire: I didn't do that one by heart because I wanted to really do it fast. I do it fast, but I didn't want to make a mistake. I have it in front of me, but I have other ones I wrote about the seven dwarfs. I thought of grumpy, rhymed it with Trumpy, and then I have another one, "From McCarthy to Johnson from bad to worse, it seems that Congress is under a curse." It keeps going. I got so many.

Brian Lehrer: Claire, the audience, it's ringing in my ears.

[applause]

Claire: [laughs]

Brian Lehrer: What did you call yourself, the what?

Claire: My grandchildren call me Nana. I'm 82, by the way, so I call myself "The Nana Who Raps Instead of Naps."

Brian Lehrer: We need to get some--

Molly Ball: Amazing.

Brian Lehrer: Right. Molly, you want to say anything to Claire?

Molly Ball: Claire, I have to tell you. I was a little skeptical when you came on, but that was delightful. I'm so impressed.

Claire: I'm so glad. They all end on a happy note.

Brian Lehrer: [chuckles] "Whoopee" was the last word of that. I will remember that.

Claire: Free to be you, free to be me. Remember those days when we had that? "Free to be you, free to be me, whoopee"?

Brian Lehrer: Whether people agree with your politics or not, well done. We need to get some Nana rap battles going in Westchester there.

Molly Ball: Absolutely

Brian Lehrer: Did you know it's National Poetry Month, Claire?

Claire: I do, I do. Once upon a time, I used to read at the Greenburgh Library, but I don't know. I don't know how to get myself out into the world, but you could call me up and invite me. I'd be happy to rap some more.

Brian Lehrer: Well, you just need--

Claire: I have a lot of books, by the way. I have a lot of children's books that are on Barnes & Noble now and I even got them translated into Spanish.

Brian Lehrer: If you want to say your name that you publish under, you can.

Claire: Well, as long as I don't get hate mail. [chuckles]

Brian Lehrer: You might.

Claire: That's slack. I call myself "The Nana Who Raps Instead of Naps."

Brian Lehrer: You don't have to. We can leave it there. Claire, thank you very much for your call. You made a lot of people stay. We'll continue with Molly Ball in just a minute.

[MUSIC]

Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC as we continue with Wall Street Journal senior political reporter Molly Ball on abortion continuing to develop as an issue in the presidential campaign and also various congressional campaigns and in the states. We're going to talk about Florida now in this respect. Michael, we see you calling from Florida. Kathy, we see you're calling from Florida. We'll get to your calls in just a minute. Molly, in brief, what just happened there?

Molly Ball: I was actually in the legislative chamber in Tallahassee when the legislature passed the current six-week ban in Florida. What has just happened is that the Florida Supreme Court has allowed that six-week ban to go forward. Previously, the state had a 15-week limit that also had, I believe, yet to be implemented pending the Supreme Court's decision. Starting on May 1st, there will be a ban on abortions after six weeks in Florida, which is before many women even know that they're pregnant, so many people consider it effectively a complete abortion ban.

Prior to this, Florida was the only southern state that hadn't restricted abortion and had become an abortion haven for that reason. On the basis of polling, it is the most pro-choice red state. At the same time, the Supreme Court issued another opinion, allowing an abortion rights ballot initiative to go on the ballot this fall. That measure, if 60% of voters support it, which is a quite high bar, would allow for a right to abortion up to fetal viability, which is the limit in Roe v. Wade, about 23, 24 weeks.

Many, including the Biden campaign, are hoping that this will prove a powerful motivator getting people to go to the polls and vote for abortion rights. Particularly, I think, for Democrats, the fact that there will be a six-week ban in place for about six months before the election, they're hoping will demonstrate to people what it's like to live under this sort of a regime and then they will have an opportunity to change it.

Brian Lehrer: I think Michael in Miami has something to say about this. Michael, you're on WNYC. Hello from New York.

Claire: Hey, Brian. Hey, Molly. Thank you so much for taking my call. Brian, you're been my lifeline to New York, living in Florida for the last couple of years.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you.

Michael: I appreciate it. We still live in Inwood. Not too far. I think this is the supercharge. I don't think people really understand how supercharging this is going to be for Florida. The Senate race is only three points. The Biden-Trump race is only seven. We need 60% to get this passed. I think it's going to be such a big influx of money and energy and power into the state that I think could-- I don't know if it'll flip it all the way presidentially, but I could certainly flip it for the Senate and, particularly, the fact that this six-week ban is going into effect in the next few days. I think people are going to realize how their rights are being taken away. It's very direct. We've got these rights being removed and then a ballot measure right in November. It's almost perfect. It's the best thing I think could have happened to Florida.

Brian Lehrer: Michael, thank you very much for checking in. Call us again from down there. Molly, let me linger with you for a second on this 60% point. You mentioned it. Michael mentioned it. I didn't know about it. Am I hearing it right that it will take 60% of the vote in Florida to enshrine abortion rights?

Molly Ball: That's correct. This measure could get a majority of the vote and still would not pass. That is the threshold for ballot measures in Florida. If you recall, in Ohio, for example, the last one of these ballot measures that passed, the abortion rights side did win in Ohio, but it got 57% of the vote. That's a very high bar to clear. We will see if Florida is able to clear it.

Brian Lehrer: It can work either way, right? I guess the anti-abortion rights camp likes the fact that it's 60% because it takes that 60-40 majority, not 50% plus one. Maybe what Michael was hinting at there is that because the abortion rights proponents would need to get to 60%, it's even more of a turnout generator than it would be if it was 50% plus one. You think?

Molly Ball: It's possible. I could also see an argument going the other direction that it's harder to motivate people when it's this hard to pass something because they may not have a hope that they could actually get there. We've seen this be, again, a very mobilizing issue in ballot initiatives, but not necessarily for candidates. I covered the Florida gubernatorial election in 2022 when the Democratic candidate, Charlie Crist, was hammering this issue very hard, saying Ron DeSantis has already banned abortion after 15 weeks and he's going to do further limits if you re-elect him.

DeSantis, of course, went on to win that election by nearly 20 points. It's not necessarily clear that voters will take this and apply it to candidates, whether it's the Senate race between Rick Scott and his Democratic opponent or the presidential race. What we have seen is that when abortion is on the ballot as an upper-down issue, it does make a lot of people go to the polls. Those people tend to be Democrats and liberal-leaning independents. The hope is once you get those people out, maybe they're not motivated to go vote for Joe Biden or vote against Rick Scott. Once you get those people to the polls, that's the way they're going to vote.

Brian Lehrer: Kathy in Ponte Vedra, Florida near Jacksonville, you're on WNYC. Hello from New York, Kathy.

Kathy: Hi, Brian. Good morning. I'm a daily listener and so happy to have this privilege of talking to you and to Molly. I'm an eight-year native, formerly from the Bronx. I'd like to be as hopeful as Michael is, but I'm not feeling it. I just think that this horrific criminal ban is really hurting, of course, the poorest among us. These are the people who are not going to get out to the polls who feel already helpless looking at all that's happening, particularly in Florida, but across the country.

I just think this is a horrible, horrible thing that's happened. There's also a 24-hour mandatory waiting period. If you want an abortion, even at the six-week point, you have to appear in person for two appointments within 24 hours. This is really a horrible, horrible thing that's being done. As Molly said, so few of us know if we're pregnant. I'm 71 years old. I would know now. As a six-week period of time, it's just awful. Again, DeSantis is destroying, I think, the morale of many of us here, although we are going to fight very hard as always.

Brian Lehrer: Kathy, thank you so much for checking in. We really appreciate it. All right, two competing Florida pundits. Michael more optimistic on behalf of Democrats. The referendum, Kathy, maybe a little bit less so. This brings us back to Trump and Mike Pence. Pence, obviously, an evangelical conservative who feels very strongly that there should not be abortion rights.

Molly, I think a lot of people missed when Pence came out last month and made a lot of news by saying he would not endorse Trump for president. Most of the media coverage was just hanging out on January 6th, but Pence actually gave three reasons. One of them was Trump's emerging position on abortion, including specifically with respect to Florida. Here's Mike Pence last month on Face the Nation on CBS.

Mike Pence: Look, states around the country have been advancing the principles of life. I was very disappointed during our presidential campaign when Donald Trump denounced and said a pro-life bill, a six-week bill enacted in Florida, which had already been enacted in Georgia and in Ohio, was, I think, in his words, terrible. We're a pro-life party. I really do believe that there is a national role. I'd like to see our nominee endorse a minimum 15-week ban, but also I'd like to see a nominee that's affirming the sanctity of life as it's debated in states.

Brian Lehrer: Pence had cited January 6th, abortion as a difference between him and Trump there, and also that Pence supported aid to Ukraine and America's place in the world in that respect of those three reasons. Interesting, Molly, to give Trump the nuance that his position deserves or maybe the proper word is the haze that he's trying to create over the whole thing about what he would actually do if he's reelected. He's leaned into the right side enough to draw that criticism from Pence.

Molly Ball: Well, Pence, as you alluded to yesterday, called Trump's new position a slap in the face to pro-life voters. Donald Trump is the Republican nominee and Mike Pence is not and neither is Ron DeSantis, who passed that six-week ban and who spent much of his presidential campaign going after Trump from the right, criticizing him on issues, including this issue of abortion, saying that Trump was not conservative enough and wouldn't be true to the desires of conservative and particularly pro-life voters. We saw that even in a strongly conservative, strongly pro-life state like Iowa, the Republican base was still with Trump.

That's clearly the gamble that Trump is taking here, assessing that the right, the base of the party, the evangelical base of the party in particular, is not going to have anywhere to go in November and is going to stand by him. We have seen this cohort of evangelical voters very, very strongly behind Trump since really the beginning of his political efforts in 2016. They have stood by him through all of the various controversies. He is gambling that they will stand by him despite this position that he has taken that has angered a lot of them in part because they love him for other reasons and in part because they, again, just won't have anywhere else to go in November.

Brian Lehrer: Right. Nobody on the left believes that Trump will stick to any line that he may have, even if he didn't draw it, implied yesterday, so on we go into the undetermined world. Molly Ball, senior political correspondent for The Wall Street Journal. Thank you so much.

Molly Ball: Thanks, Brian. Great to be with you.

 

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