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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Some of you heard our segment last week with Greg David about his reporting for the nonprofit news organization, The City, about New York City recovering jobs from the pandemic more slowly than the nation as a whole. These numbers, as of July, the country as a whole had gained back 100% of the jobs lost during the pandemic, wow, but New York City only regained about 80% of the jobs from before the shutdowns.

Greg described this largely as a story of race, gender, and age. Now, we're going to take a closer look at those disparities and what Mayor Adams is doing about them because he is trying to do some things.

One of the surprising stats is that the number of women with jobs has been going up this year along with the overall recovery, but the number of men with jobs has actually been going down. The unemployment rate by race, it's only 3% in the city now unemployed for white New Yorkers, but 11% for Black New Yorkers. The story by age, only 30% of New Yorkers 18 to 24 have a job, only 30% compared to 50% before the pandemic. Those numbers come from the latest survey by my next guest economist James Parrott, the Director of Economic and Fiscal Policy at the Center for New York City Affairs at The New School. Thanks for coming on, James. Welcome back to WNYC.

James Parrott: Good morning, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take the gender split, first. The stats from your center that Greg David cited are that, in the second quarter of this year, unemployment fell sharply for New York City women down to 5.4% unemployment, while it actually rose from then to 7.1%. Why the difference? I would have guessed unemployment for both men and women would, at least, be going in the same direction during this national recovery.

James Parrott: I think part of it has to do with the fact that the leisure and hospitality sector in New York City is still very much lagging at the national level but also lagging the recovery in the rest of the New York City economy. If I could just correct one of the numbers that Greg cited. At this point, New York City has gained back about 90. Our employment level is back about 96% of where it was before.

The United States has regained all of its jobs. Its employment level is a little over 100%. New York City is at 96% but it can't be the 80% figure [crosstalk] in terms of what we lost, we had been back a little more than 80%.

Brian Lehrer: Okay, I'm not sure I completely understand the difference there but talk about it. Your answer, by gender, has to do with the hospitality sector.

James Parrott: There a much higher percent of men working in restaurants and in hotels than women. That sector has really lagged in the recovery. I think part of it also is to, if you look at areas where employment has rebounded or even increased above where it was before the pandemic, healthcare is one of those areas. Home health care jobs, they were increasing rapidly before the pandemic, they have resumed increasing rapidly. That's largely a female occupation in New York City and a lot of places. It's partly, I think it comes down to the jobs that men and women typically have in New York City.

Brian Lehrer: Another statistic that jumped out at Greg and other analysts is that, overall, unemployment among Black New Yorkers is so much higher than for white New Yorkers, almost 11% unemployment versus 3%. We should say racial disparities are nothing new when it comes to the economic fortunes of different people, but is it getting worse this year? That's such a big difference between the groups 3% versus 11%.

James Parrott: There, for a while in, if you go back about a year ago, or in early 2021, unemployment rates were coming down across the board, but they continued to come down for whites and they've leveled off for African Americans and other people of color. You're right. This is not a new story. What's interesting is that, in the wake of previous economic downturns in New York City, you think of the early '90s recession, the early 2000s recession around the time of 911, or the great recession of 2008, 2009, New York City's Black unemployment rate is very slow to recover.

After those previous downturns, the Black unemployment rate has stayed in or near double-digit levels for several years at a time. What we're seeing could be the start of another period of extended high unemployment rate, unless there's a more conservative public policy response than there's been in the past.

Brian Lehrer: The basic stats by age, the one for the youngest adults is what jumped out, 50% employment before the pandemic, only 30% today, why that big difference?

James Parrott: There's also a gender disparity there. The 30% employment rate is for young males between 18 and 24.

Brian Lehrer: Oh, got it.

James Parrott: For young females, it's around 48%, 49%. That's about where it was before COVID hit, but for young males, it was about 54%. Now it's about 30%. Partly, I think that's a function of the fact that there are a lot of males in restaurant work, a lot of young males worked in retail, clothing retail, in particular, that part of retailing has been hit very hard by the closing of stores in Midtown, Manhattan, and so on.

A lot of young women had those retail clothings jobs also, but they've been able to pivot more and take expanding jobs in the healthcare sector.

Brian Lehrer: Am I seeing correctly that the unemployment rate for young men is actually pretty consistent across racial lines?

James Parrott: It is. I think that's a function of different sources but the employment rate for white young men and for Black young men and other young men of color is pretty consistent. It's around 30% across the board. However, there's a big difference in terms of the education attainment level for whites versus LatinX workers and Black workers, and for those who report that they're going to school full time. A higher percent of the white males, young males who are not employed or going to school than for Black males.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, is this you? If you're in this sector, 18 to 24-year-old man in New York City, or anyone else having trouble finding a job in this jobs recovery in New York and elsewhere, call up and tell us your story. 212-433-WNYC. Most of the news is about how many people are employed. We've done callings recently for employers having trouble finding applicants because there's a labor shortage, but there's also this chronic unemployment, this stubborn unemployment in New York City that's a little higher than elsewhere, as we recover from the pandemic.

212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Call up and tell your story, or ask a question of economist James Parrott from The New School. 212-433-9692 or tweet @Brianlehrer. The Adams administration is very aware of these numbers. Do you see them having certain policy responses to try to create more jobs or reduce the disparities by race, gender, and age?

James Parrott: I think they're certainly very aware of this and they're working on a more concerted policy response. Some of us would like to see that response unfold, work quickly than what has been, but I think, in some of the recent announcements, that the mayor has been making, there's an indication of steady progress that they're moving in the right direction. They're aware of the need to  have a concerted follow-on to the expanded summer youth employment program. The mayor invested heavily in that. That's a good start.

That's never been really been seen as a definitive way in order to improve the employment opportunities for young people, that more needs to be done in New York City. I think there's an awareness of that. There's an interest in trying to connect participants in the Summer Youth Employment Program with internships in the fall and going forward. There's clearly an awareness there.

There's also, I think a commitment to work more closely with the non-profit workforce development providers in New York City. This is in a sense a all-hands-on-deck moment. Again, if New York City wants to end this pattern of extended double-digit unemployment rates for Black New Yorkers in the wake of economic downturns, that we need to have an active labor market policy response.

We've never really had that before. New York City's always responded, it always had a laissez-faire attitude toward the labor market. Let it recover at its own pace. I think the added administration recognizes that more needs to be done.

Brian Lehrer: James in Brooklyn, you're on WNYC. Hi, James.

James: Hi, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: You have a story for us about a career change?

James: Yes. I was a nurse for 10 years at a hospital on the upper east side. I'm only 31. We all noticed that the pandemic, just the amount of new nurses, male and female coming into the workforce and not staying. A lot of hospitals are really not keeping up with the prices that you're seeing elsewhere in the healthcare sector. It's really affecting how people are coming into new jobs and staying in new jobs when it comes to in-hospital healthcare.

Brian Lehrer: Are you saying that you can actually make more money, which might surprise a lot of people, as a home care-- I don't know if that means you're a home health aide, but than you can as a nurse in a hospital?

James: Yes. I'm currently a private nurse outside of the hospital, and it didn't take long to find that employment opportunity, especially because a lot of people realized how much they needed home care during the pandemic. You'd have a lot more people looking for that opportunity, and hospitals haven't been able to keep up with what travel nursing agencies have been able to pay their workers.

I know that, on the national level, that's gotten some attention, but citywide, I noticed that a lot of younger nurses are leaving the hospital jobs like me. The lack of support in the hospital is really falling. The quality of care is falling, and people are seeking care outside the hospital. It's expanding the market for that.

Brian Lehrer: It's an interesting sector of nursing, as I understand it, which is very little, but you tell me. Yes, you can be a nurse in a hospital, or you can do what you were just describing that you do. Then when you look at the sector of inside people's homes, people can be home health aides, which is one thing, or you can be an in-home nurse, which is another level of qualification, another level of education, but it also takes, I think, a doctor's prescription that you need an in-home nurse, not just a home health aide in order to get that covered by Medicare or anything, is that correct?

James: For many people, yes. Medicare and Medicaid have pretty rigid, I guess, ways of paying for in-home nursing care because it is more expensive than a home health aide. A lot of people that I know are working even community-based, just doing favors for people and holding down other jobs other than like an in-hospital nursing job, which used to pay all the bills. Now I know that like young people entering healthcare are looking for even stuff like I know one guy who is like personal training on the side, because the hospitals just aren't paying as much.

He figured out a way to like to be a holistic personal trainer that comes to people with injuries and that stuff. I think young people are strapped to find more than one job even in growing healthcare fields like healthcare.

Brian Lehrer: Interesting. James, thank you for sharing. I appreciate it a lot. Sea Marie in Crown Heights, you're on WNYC. Hello, Sea Marie.

Sea Marrie: Hi, Brian. Thank you for taking my call. I do understand that there's a lot of people who are getting jobs, but I don't think that it is equal across the board. I've been looking for a bookkeeping or working with dogs kind of job. That was one of my COVID career changes, but no, the jobs aren't equal out there, they aren't paying enough money. That's why some of us are being hard about this is that they're not paying enough money and they're not giving us benefits to do really, really hard work.

Brian Lehrer: I hear you.

Sea Marrie: That is a real challenge for us. I won't take a job that will pay me $15 an hour when I know I'm worth $25.

Brian Lehrer: Let me get James. Parrot's take on that. James, is any of the unemployment rate in New York City voluntary in the way that Sea Marie is describing it, and voluntary might be too strong a word, but we know about the great resignation and we know about how just unpleasant it was to work in some of the sectors during the height of the pandemic, still is in a lot of places where you might be in fear of COVID spread or might have to wear a mask all day and that's unpleasant.

That's some of these sectors that still have an incomplete recovery, retail and entertainment, for example. Is some of it from people saying, "No, I just won't work in the places where I can get work"?

James Parrott: I think that's certainly true. We see that phenomenon across the country though, it's not unique to New York City. I don't think that alone accounts for the significant discrepancy that is the much higher unemployment rate in New York City than at the national level. Although, there's certainly a lot of anecdotal and intuitive evidence about people's reluctance to take jobs, to go back to jobs that they may have had before.

There's more interest, as the caller noted, in good pay and benefits in opportunities for advancement as well. We have seen fortunately some employers, and I don't know that this is concentrated in any one sector. We see it in some retail businesses, in some restaurants even, and in other parts of the economy where employers recognize this greater interest on the part of workers in better pay benefits and opportunities for advancement. They're responding to that, but as the caller noted, not all employers are so, there should be an opportunity to try and address the quality of jobs.

I think the Adams administration is mindful of that. They have pointed out how they're going to increase labor standards enforcement to make sure that more employers are complying with the city's paid sick leave requirement. They're trying to lift up pay standards in for delivery workers, for example, in that area. It is a phenomenon at work in New York City, but it doesn't account for the wide disparity in the unemployment rate here relative to the national average.

Brian Lehrer: Hyacinth in Brooklyn, you're on WNYC. Hello, Hyacinth.

Hyacinth: Yes. Good morning, Brian, and to your guest. I have a big concern here. My son is 30 years old and still living under our roof. It's very frustrating, both for him and for me, because I have to be doing more than one jobs in order to assist him. He has made several applications, the latest one, he just showed it to me now from Neiman Marcus Human Resource, and they just said the position was taken.

At first, everything was open up. As soon as he made his application, everything is closed, and they will keep his applications and file. This has been going on for many years now. He's very frustrated and he doesn't know what to do at this point. He applied to the airport. He has an associate's in science. He's going to school. As a young man, he wants to get a car now because the school that he's going to now is a good distance away. He wants to get a car. He's not working. He is very strenuous on me to-- What can we do, at this point? How can we get some  help? He doesn't matter what, he will work anywhere. At one point, he even applied in the bar restaurant, nobody's hiring him. I don't know what is going on. Even with New York City transit, I paid for him to do the test about five, or six years ago, he did the test. They did not even send and tell him that he failed the test. All they send and say he doesn't have experience.

How are you going to get experience if you are not given the chance to get an experience. So many people took that test that I'm wondering how many of those people they told they don't have experience. Didn't you know that before you take his money to do the test. What can we do at this point, please? I would love to get some help.

Brian Lehrer: Well, James Parrott, I know you're an academic economist, not a personal jobs counselor, but any thoughts that could help Hyacinth and her son?

James Parrott: I think what she described is a classic challenge in the New York City labor market. A lot of young new Yorkers have difficulty getting that first job, getting experience, and then that compounds itself and makes it harder as they age.

It's especially a problem in New York City because New York City is still, for many years, and continues to be very attractive to young people from other parts of the country. The age cohort, as you move into the 20s and 30s grows by 50% compared to what it was before age 20, just because young people from other parts of the state and the country and the world are attracted to New York City.

I think that means that New York City policymakers need to focus more on, you need to be laser-focused on helping employers understand the need to employ and recruit homegrown talent, give people opportunities. I mentioned before, as an extension of the Summer Youth Employment Program, a greater emphasis on getting young people into internships in the fall and beyond. We need to see more efforts like that.

There is an organization of CEOs in New York City that's focused on trying to do a better job in terms of recruiting CUNY graduates rather than thinking that the gold standard for young talent as in Ivy League education, but to consider CUNY graduates and local talent. That takes a greater focus and effort and coordination on the part of the city with private sector leaders, with nonprofit organizations, who can connect the city and employers with young people from, across New York City neighborhoods.

Brian Lehrer: Hyacinth, I don't know how much help this phone call is for you. Maybe one other idea is, since you said he has an associate's degree, I don't know how long ago it was, but maybe he can go back to the jobs counselor which there probably is such a position at the community college that he went to and talk about the situation, and maybe they've got some particular referrals and can give him a reference and that kind of thing.

I don't know how helpful that is, but hopefully, a little bit. A few more minutes with New School economist, James Parrott, on the bit of stubbornness in the jobs recovery in New York City, after the height of the pandemic compared to other parts of the country. James, do you think there's a relationship between youth unemployment and the spike in crime these last few years and the degree to which it's continuing?

If young men committed a disproportionate share of violent and other street crimes, which I think is the case, and the unemployment rate for young men is especially high as you're documenting, does that correlation suggest a cause of high crime rates?

James Parrott: Well, this is a huge public policy concern. We have been trying to get a better understanding of that. What's interesting, the increase in crime is not unique to New York City. That's been happening in many large cities around the country, including many large cities where the overall unemployment and where youth unemployment is a lot less than what it is in New York City. It may be that there's something about COVID and its impact on the social relations in the social order, that account for that.

Brian Lehrer: Everywhere.

James Parrott: If you look carefully at the recent data, the crime level in New York City has risen certainly from where it was in the year or two immediately before the pandemic, but it's still much lower than what it was a decade ago. It's back to maybe 2017, 2018 level. It's clearly up from where it was before the pandemic, but it certainly hasn't reverted to what it was several years ago. Then if you look at it by age group, there's actually been more of a bump up in arrest for people aged 25 to 44, and 18 to 24.

Brian Lehrer: Interesting. Just one follow-up to Hyacinth's call. You said that one of the chronic problems for people who grew up in New York City is that so many people are coming from outside the city in the young adult age group, and employers are pretty eager to hire those people. Is that happening again? Are people moving to New York to try to make their careers in whatever, since the pandemic, as before the pandemic, or is New York City now, I don't know if I want to go there, more than it used to be?

James Parrott: I don't think that situation has fundamentally changed. No.

Brian Lehrer: We'll leave that as the last answer for today with economist James Parrott, the Director of Economic and Fiscal Policy at the Center for New York City Affairs at The New School. Thanks for the deep dive into the numbers and the human side of this. We really appreciate it.

James Parrott: Thank you, Brian.

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