Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning again, everyone. Have you seen the cover of this week's New York Magazine yet? The headline is The Calmest Democrats in the Country, and then it says, Despite Terrible Polls and Panic Pundits, the Mood Inside Biden Headquarters is Chill. We're going to have the writer of that story now. New York Magazine's national political correspondent, Gabe Debenedetti. Is the Biden team like an ostrich with its head in the sand, or is everyone else running around mindlessly like a chicken without a head? Choose your feather-headed creature metaphor. We'll discuss. Hi, Gabe. Welcome back to WNYC.

Gabriel Debenedetti: Hey, Brian. It's good to be here. Thanks for having me back.

Brian Lehrer: In brief, to start out, what's this divide?

Gabriel Debenedetti: Well, the divide is between the rest of the world. We'll start there. People who look at the polls and feel like, "Oh, my goodness gracious. Donald Trump is about to come back. Joe Biden is plummeting in the public's view. What are we doing about it?" Then, there's the people who are actually allied with Joe Biden. It's his campaign. It's people in the White House, people who I spent the last few months really digging in with.

Their view is, "Listen, folks, we have a plan. The next year is not going to be easy. The election's going to be close, but there is a theory of the case here that largely rests on the idea that as soon as the American people realize that this is really a binary choice, Joe Biden versus Donald Trump, once again, they'll wake up and these poll numbers will start to look a little bit better."

Brian Lehrer: Although I don't know that there were poll numbers in 2020 like the ones we've been seeing recently that actually show Trump beating Biden in most of the swing states. Were there?

Gabriel Debenedetti: No, and there weren't in 2016 either when it was Hillary Clinton running. That's one of the big arguments that the Biden campaign has been contending with, the idea that this is a singularly bad environment for the incumbent president right now. The case that they make is that in 2011, when we were at this point when Barack Obama was running for reelection, there weren't as dire polling as we look at now, but there certainly was a lot of polling showing that Obama was very unpopular.

Same thing happened with Bill Clinton when he was running for reelection. As they see it, there is some precedence here, but no one is pretending that this is exactly where they want to be.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, let's have this politics conversation. If you're a Democrat concerned about the potential of Donald Trump being elected again, and you're watching the Biden campaign, are they too calm? I will say that you drop a few f-bombs in this article, Gabe quoting people who talk about the effing bedwetters and things like that, who think the Biden campaign isn't ramping it up enough.

Which side are you on, Democrats, or anybody else who has a question for Gabe Debenedetti from New York Magazine on his cover story about the calmest Democrats in America? They are the Democrats running the Biden campaign, apparently. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Talk about the alternatives. If this is not about Biden not running and giving it up to a younger Democrat, if this is about just Biden running for reelection and how they're running the campaign, who's saying what about what they should be doing?

Gabriel Debenedetti: We should be clear that we're well past the point where it's realistic to think that Biden's not going to run and anyone could take over. In fact, most of the criticisms from outside the campaign that you hear is a vague sense that something is clearly not right around Biden and his public image, but there's not necessarily a lot of specific objections that people have to the actions of the campaign itself.

The closest thing to it is anxiety that the campaign hasn't really ramped up in a very public way. They say there's a reason for that. They took a lot of cues from the Obama reelection campaign of 2012, the 2011 to 2012 campaign, which really did try to build up in a very public way, that turned out to be quite expensive and very inefficient. What the Biden team is trying to do is be methodical about the way that it's building up.

It does have organizing presences in some swing states. It is advertising all over the country in a very scientific way, trying to make sure that they reach the right people at the right time. Their perspective is, "Listen, we get that the polls aren't good right now." The reason that I called them the calmest Democrats in America is because they are very confident that they have a plan and that as long as they can follow this plan--

If you just look at election after election right now, especially since the overturning of Roe v. Wade last year, Democrats do well. Democrats are overperforming. Once people realize that this is a election where once again the real question is going to be, "Do you want Donald Trump to be president again?" things will look significantly better. In terms of specific objections to what they are doing on the ground, they haven't been fielding much. It's just a generalized anxiety, and that's an understandable one.

Brian Lehrer: Is some of it calling on Biden to get louder about Donald Trump? I think it's been reported that Biden's general public stance toward Trump is, let Trump say these outrageous things that he says, don't give them fuel or oxygen by getting into a shouting war with Donald Trump in your media channels versus his media channels, that kind of thing that Biden thinks that's to Trump's advantage. A lot of other Democrats think, "No, he's going to spread his message and he's going to be more likely to win unless you're out there pushing back."

Gabriel Debenedetti: That was definitely the debate, especially over the summer. I had a lot of people in the broader Biden orbit say, "We really got to be going after Trump a lot harder now." Once it became totally obvious that Trump was really running away with this GOP primary, things might change, but Trump is leading by a huge amount. That started to change. Biden has been talking more and more about Trump. His campaign is advertising quite heavily against Trump already.

It's important and I think instructive to look back at the example of the 2022 midterms when a lot of Democrats said, "What Biden needs to be doing is just try not to make this about himself but really focus on the economy, on crime, on how he's trying to make things better." What Biden said, and this might be a little bit counterintuitive to try and remember this, what Biden said was, "We need to talk about the stakes of this election and the Trumpism question when it comes to democracy in this country and the fate of democracy in this country."

He gave this big speech about democracy before the last elections in which a lot of Democrats said, "You shouldn't be doing this. You're just distracting." Then, Democrats overperformed. From the Biden's perspective, now is the time when he can start to talk about things like this. More and more you do actually see him starting to talk about the threat to democracy, which is one of his preferred ways to talk about Trump, in addition to talking about the economic contrast between the two of them.

When it comes to the question of, are we going to see Joe Biden in battleground states anytime soon giving rallies, I don't think that's in the offing. It doesn't seem likely until really maybe the first quarter, maybe the second quarter of next year. That's what precedent shows is most effective. It's not really obvious that having Biden giving big rallies is the best way to get across his message at this point in political history.

Brian Lehrer: Before we go to some of our many callers and text message writers, do you think that Biden's reaction to what Trump said this weekend about immigrants is any different than his reaction after other Trump outrageous statements? For people who haven't heard it, Trump literally channeled Adolf Hitler from Hitler's book Mein Kampf, saying that immigrants-- and he said it so broadly, we played the clip before. I don't want to play it again because it's editorial, it's too disgusting.

He was saying that immigrants, very broadly speaking, are poisoning the blood of this country, which is a phrase that Hitler used about immigrants to Germany way back then. Has Joe Biden spoken about that in any different terms than he talks about any other outrageous things that Trump says?

Gabriel Debenedetti: Yes. You do have the White House getting more and more comfortable calling these kinds of statements, and particularly these ones, fascistic, talking about the fascist tendencies that are brought to mind when you hear things like this so clearly invoking words that Hitler said, for example. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Biden say more about this, specifically in the coming days.

I don't have inside knowledge on that, but this does seem like the kind of thing that I know has been really agitating him in recent weeks as you hear Trump becoming more and more openly totalitarian, authoritarian, and laughing at the idea that he could be a dictator in a positive way. Biden does seem to be quite agitated about that and willing to talk about it.

Brian Lehrer: If you're just joining us, Gabe Debenedetti, national correspondent for New York Magazine is our guest. He's got the cover story on the new issue called The Calmest Democrats in the Country: Despite Terrible Polls and Panic Pundits, the Mood Inside Biden Headquarters is Chill. Damani in Brooklyn.

Damani: [unintelligible 00:09:35].

Brian Lehrer: Did you want to correct something?

Damani: That's me.

Brian Lehrer: Damani, you're on WNYC. Hi.

Damani: Hi, Brian. How are you? I was just-- Thank you for taking my call. Just briefly, I wanted to say that I truly believe that the way the Biden administration is handling things is better than being like a chicken without a head cut off. I think that what the American people are really used to is a lot of drama. I think that the Republicans are giving them that drama and that's fueling that flame, but I do hope that Biden does stay steady and head down and taking care of business and not get wrapped up in the hoopla and the theatrics that are going on on the other side of the aisle. I'll take my call off the air. Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Damani, thank you very much. One for the be calm and carry on approach. Salvador in Greenwich Village, you're on WNYC. Hello, Salvador.

Salvador: Hello, gentlemen. What I think part of the problem is of Biden's numbers is that right-wing media is just a drumbeat of doom and gloom. They disseminate no accurate information about the economy's GDP, unemployment, wages, overinflation. Even I think many, many, many people's lives, people have what they need in their lives, there's this atmosphere of like, "Oh, we're all going to die. Everything's collapsing." I think it's mostly because of the drumbeat of right-wing media.

Brian Lehrer: Salvador, thank you very much, but that's part of the question, right, Gabe? If right-wing media is ginning up drama every single day about how bad inflation is, how bad this or that is, and pinning it all on Biden and putting it in Biden's lap, then that's what they have to decide how to respond to, right?

Gabriel Debenedetti: Sure. That's a built-in problem at this point. Not to minimize it because it is a pretty big one, but we do live in a pretty polarized environment these days. I think one of the bigger issues that the Biden team is facing right now is, again, not to minimize that issue, but that does turn a lot of people who are inclined to vote for Republicans anyway against the president.

A bigger issue for them right now is that there are quite a lot of people who identify as Democrats or as Democrat adjacent who have real objections to Biden right now. When you see his low approval ratings, a lot of that is coming from people who want to like him but just can't approve of what his administration is doing for whatever reason. A lot of that is an economic malaise that a lot of people feel, even though the top-line numbers are certainly getting better. It's a bit of a puzzle for a lot of people in the Biden orbit.

As to the specific question, there are people in that world who are extremely concerned with the broader issue of where are people getting their news. This fractured media environment is nowhere near where it was in 2020, even when it was already complicated. It's just getting more and more decentralized where people are getting their news from different places, often in very biased ways.

Combating that and trying to get their message directly to voters is a real struggle, not just for the Biden campaign, also for the Trump campaign. We should say for everyone, but it is something that the Biden folks are actually studying pretty closely and trying to get a real methodical and scientific view of before they commit all the way to one kind of messaging over the next year.

Brian Lehrer: I'm curious if you've looked into, and I don't think it's in this new article but have you looked into deep fakes and other misinformation and disinformation that is being spread or will no doubt-

Gabriel Debenedetti: Sure.

Brian Lehrer: -be spread increasingly as election day in November comes closer next year, and just as you say, the media landscape is more fractured than ever. I think there's going to be more of this kind of thing than ever. Whether it's about candidate X molesting children in the pizza place basement, or whatever the horrible thing is, there's going to be a lot of it. Have you reported on campaigns gearing up to try to fight that sort of thing when it's just made-up stuff?

Gabriel Debenedetti: You're right that it's not in this story, but it is absolutely something that I've talked to a lot of campaigns about. In fact, Biden has talked openly about the fact that he knows that there is a huge misinformation issue out there around him. He does mention this on some occasions, having talked to his family about it, how worried they are, but with the sense of resolution or resolve rather that this does need to be fought.

Campaigns, in particular, the Biden campaign are extremely aware of this problem and have been studying what the best way to combat it is. There's no silver bullet is the short version of this, but trying to make sure that they can get their message directly to voters which we, of course, have heard every campaign since, what, 2004, say, but that's an important part of what they're trying to do.

One of the big things that I've heard from folks who are specifically working on the message or on the part of the campaign, which is selling Joe Biden and making sure that he as a character comes across to people, is they really want to make sure that folks understand that he's this trusted kind character that a lot of them feel like they really do know, but that may have not necessarily been at the front of their minds during his presidency.

They're trying to return to the idea of Joe Biden as human. The specific question of combating deep fakes is a much more complicated one. The short version of this is, right now, the answer that you hear from a lot of people is you just got to be totally vigilant and call it out when you see it. Again, there's simply no easy answer to it.

Brian Lehrer: Alex in Brooklyn, you're on WNYC. Hi, Alex.

Alex: Hey. I'm a 42-year-old progressive. I voted for Gore, Kerry, Obama, Clinton, et cetera. Biden's handling of the situation in the Middle East is really upsetting to me, and I will be voting for a third-party candidate. Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Are you afraid, Alex, that by doing so, you're going to make it more likely that Trump is elected, and that could be so much worse for what you want in the Middle East or lots of other things that you want to take place?

Alex: Of course, but Biden is allowing the situation to happen. He is not serious about a ceasefire. If he was, there would be one. My whole life, it's been like, "Well, the Democrat's better, the Democrat's better," but it's like it's not.

Brian Lehrer: Or not enough. Alex, thank you very much. Well, how much are you hearing that, and how much are you hearing the chill Biden campaign concerned about the Alexs in Brooklyn of the world?

Gabriel Debenedetti: Well, that is exactly a great encapsulation of something that they're very worried about. The answer that you hear from them pretty frequently is, of course, we're concerned about this point of view. They can't afford to let that point of view settle, but their view is as soon as it becomes clear to enough people that this is going to be a binary campaign, the choice is Biden or Trumpism, Trump and Trumpism. They think that they're likely to get a large number of people back on board.

The reality though is I don't want to make it seem as if chill is the same thing as complacent. They know that they have to work on these people. They just simply believe this is part of the plan that they have to get to that point in the first place, but, of course, it's a very real concern because you simply have to look at recent elections to say, if you simply have a large enough number of progressives, for example, say, we're voting for a third-party candidate or not going to vote at all, that could be enough. The last election was decided by fewer than 45,000 voters in the swing states. That's probably going to be the case again.

Brian Lehrer: Can you say, do you have reporting on how the Biden administration sees or the Biden campaign, I should say, or for that matter political experts, see the politics of the Middle East situation right now as they pertain to the presidential election next year? I realize a lot's going to happen between now and next November in the Middle East, but never mind right and wrong for a moment, from a pure politics standpoint, if they're looking at alienating X number of Jewish voters in certain states versus X number of Muslim or Arab American voters in other states, or just people who are not from either of those groups, but who have strong feelings about US policy toward the Middle East one way or the other, how's the math?

Gabriel Debenedetti: Well, very complicated. Like you said, we should be careful no matter how we talk about this because, of course, the primary way that they're thinking about this is not in terms of domestic politics. However, it's obviously never far from their minds, particularly with an election coming up. The reality is that there is a lot of concern that there's a very vocal group of people who are inclined to be Biden supporters but who don't feel like they can support him right now.

A lot of these people, some of them are Arab American, and this is especially true in Michigan, which has a large Arab American population, and they're worried about that. Michigan is a top-tier swing state, but it's also true all around the country. Like you said, a lot is going to change, not just in the Middle East, but around the world in all sorts of different ways. One refrain that I heard over and over was, at this point in 2019, Trump hadn't been impeached and no one had ever heard of this thing called COVID.

The world could look dramatically different in a year, but trying to make this balance, trying to not alienate either sides of his base, before you even get to the question of talking about swing voters, it's a constant concern. There's not really much that anyone on the campaign side can do about it. At the end of the day, you see Biden himself trying to get out there and make sure that people understand that he is trying to negotiate pauses and fighting, negotiate for hostage releases. Obviously, that hasn't been sufficient to calm a lot of the fears about how this is all playing politically in terms of domestic politics, but it's on their mind at all times.

Brian Lehrer: The text message feed, there's a lot of reaction to the caller Alex in Brooklyn who's considering a third-party candidate. Alex being a progressive listener texts, "I'm a progressive voter and I resent being told my entire life to choose the lesser of two evils. I am tired of choosing evil and very near the point of refusing." Somebody else wrote-- oh, in support of Alex because he is in Brooklyn, "Voting third party in New York State will not help Trump. We all know Biden will get New York's electoral votes." That's that New York particular take on it.

Somebody else writes-- Sorry, these are coming in pretty fast now. "Alex is shortsighted and Alex's point of view is so frustrating. It is as if they imagine Biden has more power than he has," I guess meaning to change policy in progressive directions. How do you see as a national political correspondent the potential impact of Cornel West running to Biden's left, RFK Jr., No Labels?

Apparently, there's going to be a No Labels candidate, and I never know what to make about them. Whether that's going to wind up helping Trump more or helping Biden more, they say they actually have a chance of winning. We don't know who the nominees are going to be, Joe Manchin for president or somebody else. It's going to be quite a field.

Gabriel Debenedetti: It could very well be quite a field. The thing that I think has not become clear about all of this yet, and it might become clear in the coming months, is where these various third-party, fourth-party, fifth-party, and so on, candidates will even be on the ballot because it's not so easy to get on the ballot in a lot of these states. Now, the question of media access is a separate one.

These folks in some cases have pretty large platforms and are polling pretty well, but if you look at where they're able to actually get on the ballot, which means voters will actually be able to vote for them, it doesn't make up all of the swing states quite yet. That's obviously what the Biden folks are focusing on most closely. Their primary concern right now is just making sure that people once again like Joe Biden and understand more importantly the threat that Trump poses.

Biden himself always says-- I want to bring us back for a second to the last part of this conversation. Biden always says and has said for years, "Don't compare me to the almighty. Compare me to the alternative." It's a very brass-tacks view of these things. You can look at it as the lesser of two evils approach, but he just is trying to be realistic. In terms of these third-party candidates, it is something that folks around Biden are concerned about, but it's not yet an existential threat.

The problem at the end of the day is that any one of these elections is really decided on the margins by a point or two or three or four, and that's exactly the number of votes that could be siphoned away by these candidates. None of them yet is looking like it's going to be an existential threat in that way, but absolutely, they all look like they could be.

Brian Lehrer: One more on the third-party parties' text message that just came in says, "I tried calling but couldn't get through. Why is no one considering a Nikki Haley, Joe Manchin third-party No Labels ticket? Makes sense that you'll never win over the diehard Trumpers and some Dems will vote no matter what for Dem." "I'm a Republican," listener writes, "and I want a real option."

Do you have a take on who these No Labels presidential and vice presidential candidates might be? I know their goal is to take one from each party. Do you think Nikki Haley might do that, top a ticket, or Joe Manchin might do that, top a ticket, and the other be vice president? Would Nikki Haley accept that, assuming she doesn't beat Trump in the primaries?

Gabriel Debenedetti: Well, first things first, it seems that No Labels is still considering whether they're going to put anyone on the ballot, but what we do know is that they seem likely as to put a Republican on the ballot at the top of the ticket. That just seems to be the way that they've calculated. It would be their best approach. The person who seems to be the focus of most of their interest is Larry Hogan, the former governor of Maryland, who is, by many accounts, at least in the Trump era, seen as a moderate Republican certainly no fan of Trump.

Manchin is clearly someone who has flirted a lot with the No Labels organization and with running in some way, so I wouldn't rule that out either in terms of who they're going to consider. The Haley question is an interesting one that I have heard from a few people. It's not clear that Haley would accept that, would want to do it in the first place, especially if there's not really a path to victory. Let's not forget that Nikki Haley was in the Trump administration and there are plenty of rumors that Trump is considering putting her on his ticket.

The idea that Haley would be willing to go out there and run a campaign in order to beat Trump or to stop Trump from being elected, it seems like it's highly unlikely, especially if the effect does look like that would help Biden. She is running against Joe Biden here. She's not running a purely anti-Trump campaign.

Brian Lehrer: Right. Fair enough that the way the Democrats are characterizing Nikki Haley these days is by pointing out that she still says Donald Trump is fit for office despite everything. How does she join No Labels after that? All right, we have to leave it there for today with Gabriel Debenedetti, national correspondent for New York Magazine. He has the cover story called The Calmest Democrats in the Country: Despite Terrible Polls and Panic Pundits, the Mood Inside Biden Headquarters is Chill. Thanks for coming on, Gabe. Appreciate it.

Gabriel Debenedetti: Always great to be here.

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