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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. Today on The Brian Lehrer Show, a few very special things for this Friday coming up later. We will have a New York City history quiz with the great authors and documentary filmmakers, Ric Burns and James Sanders, who have just released an updated edition of their remarkable book, An Illustrated History of New York City. As a special treat, we will be giving away copies of the book if you get just one question right in the quiz that's coming up later this hour. Ric Burns and James Sanders with their Illustrated History of New York City and our accompanying quiz.

First, we'll dive in right away with a very special guest, David Miliband, who used to be the UK foreign secretary and is now head of the International Rescue Committee, which helps and advocates for the world's refugees. An estimated one million refugees, as many of you just heard on the BBC, have already flowed out of Ukraine making migration in the European winter one of the most dramatic effects of Putin's invasion so far. As David Miliband is doing what he can for those refugees, we are grateful he has made some time to give us a report. David, we always appreciate when you come on the show, and especially today. Welcome back to WNYC.

David Miliband: Thank you very much, Brian. I really appreciate your continuing interest in the global questions as well as the local questions that the IRC, International Rescue Committee, is addressing in trying to help some of the most vulnerable people in the world.

Brian Lehrer: I think many of our listeners who were hearing the BBC just before we came on or just following the story at all have seen the top line number of an estimated one million refugees out of Ukraine so far. I want to start here with you then. Your group, the International Rescue Committee I see has called out breaches of international humanitarian law by Russia in Ukraine. What are you seeing?

David Miliband: We've got a team on the ground in Poland who are talking to the refugees who are coming across the border. It's important for your listeners to understand that there are three parts to the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. Part one is where the serious breaches of international law come into play. It's the people who are under siege in cities. These are civilians you're seeing on the screens, you're hearing on the radio the report of indiscriminate bombing of civilian centers and of shelling of hospitals. These are well-founded reports and the International Criminal Court has announced an inquiry and investigation into these breaches of international law. That's part one of what we're focused on.

Part two is people on the run inside Ukraine. We don't have good numbers because people are not crossing borders, they're staying within their own country, but they're fleeing west. Then thirdly, you've got the million refugees that you rightly refer to who've now gone into Europe, into Poland mainly but also into Hungary and Moldova, and an expectation that that number could rise to about five million. Just by way of comparison, Brian, because you did have me on a few years ago to talk about this, it took three months for a million refugees to flee Syria in 2011, '12.

Brian Lehrer: Wow.

David Miliband: It's taken a week for a million refugees to flee Ukraine. That's what we're talking about.

Brian Lehrer: If this work continues, what are you projecting? There's 44 million people in the whole country of Ukraine, so a million refugees in one week is staggering just already. What happens if this goes on for another two months?

David Miliband: Yes. I think that we could be talking, and these are informed estimates by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees as well as the US government, five million, even seven million refugees. Remember we must not forget about the people who are trapped inside, the elderly, the disabled. There are many millions of Ukrainians who will never leave, and it's vital that their humanitarian needs, as well as their legal rights, are upheld. We could be talking about five to seven million people, which is a lot of people.

That's the same number and more or less as the Syrian crisis.

I do want to emphasize though, these people are fleeing to a continent of 500 million people, that's the European continent, and it's the world's largest richest single market. In contrast to most refugees flows which are into poor countries, Syrians fleeing to Lebanon or Renga fleeing from Myanmar into Bangladesh or South Sudanese fleeing to Uganda. The Ukrainians are fleeing into Europe, and there's no excuse for Europe not to get the processing and the documentation and the support right.

I'm pleased to say that Europe is really stepping up. The European Union, so 27 countries, announced just yesterday that every Ukrainian would be guaranteed three years stay in Europe. They'll be guaranteed the right to work and for the kids, they'd be guaranteed the right to education, but it is a very large flow of people.

Brian Lehrer: There are reports from the Berlin train station of crowds showing up to greet the arriving refugees. Poland and Hungary which have seen a rise in anti-immigrant far-right populism in general have greeted Ukrainians fleeing into their country, both of those countries. I'm troubled by this to some degree, though, and I suspect you are too because the reception is so different from when the Syrians were fleeing their murderous dictator and the Central Americans fleeing their civil wars. You've been on the show talking about those refugees so many times. How does that difference make you feel?

David Miliband: You're absolutely right. It doesn't make me feel good. I think the truth is that Europe is being divided over the last 10 years in response to the refugee crisis. It's not an accident it's been divided about refugees from Syria who are Muslim, it's been divided about refugees from Sub-Saharan Africa who are Black. This is a crisis that should remind us that refugees are teachers, refugees are radio journalists, refugees are charity workers. refugees are farmers, refugees are accountants. Refugees are people, and it doesn't matter what their race or their religion. If it's not safe for them to go home, then they need care and support, and opportunities.

I think that the unity of Europe should be applauded, but it's also a teachable moment in many aspects. Essentially, this is an attempt by President Putin to rewrite the history of the last 30 years. To rewind the clock is a better way of putting it. To rewind the clock to 1990. I don't myself think he's trying to recreate the Soviet Union. What he's trying to recreate is greater Russia. Not exactly a Russian empire, but a Russian sphere of influence, Mir Russky as Fiona Hill, the Brookings Institution analyst puts it, and my Russia, Greater Russia.

He wants to rerun the last 30 years with a sense of humiliation, a sense of vengeance, a sense of victimhood and the stakes are very, very high. One part of those stakes is about how Europe upholds its own values, how the Western alliance, not just as a geography but as a political construct, the West alliance of political democracies, how we uphold our own values. There's no room in that context to say one type of refugee is okay and another type of refugee isn't.

Brian Lehrer: Let me follow up on that then and ask with your experience as one of the world's leading diplomats as UK foreign minister, and now as someone who wants to stop the creation of desperate refugee situations as president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, how do you see this war ending?

David Miliband: At the moment, I can see it going on or unending. The truth is that the Ukrainian resistance has been far stronger than the Russians clearly backed on. The fact that the Ukrainian Air Force is still in operation is striking. The incredible scene that we're seeing of Ukrainians arming up to try to defend their country. On the other hand, the willingness of President Putin to escalate and escalate again to the extent of pulverizing cities, to the extent of shelling just ordinary apartment blocks is far easier to see how this is going to get worse than how it's going to get better.

What are the off-ramps? The off-ramps are, one, the isolation that this is causing for Russia. That should be sobering for people around President Putin and across the Russian elite. Second, this is uncomfortable for China. They pride themselves on the doctrine of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, and an invasion is a clear breach of that doctrine of minding international law. There is an off-ramp around the willingness of the United States and others to talk about European security and of Ukraine to talk about that too, but hope is not a strategy.

At the moment, I think it's only fair to warn your listeners that there are likely to be very dark days ahead. I was struck by the readout of the phone conversation between President Macron of France and President Putin yesterday. It sounds like a dialogue of the deaf. President Macron's readout was the worst is yet to come, because there was no glimmer of contrition or alternative thinking from-- [crosstalk]

Brian Lehrer: On the part of Putin.

David Miliband: Exactly.

Brian Lehrer: That's a disturbing phrase that you just used, a dialogue of the death between Macron and Putin. An unfortunate wrinkle in the refugee aspect seems to be that Africans and Asians in Ukraine are reporting some prevention from fleeing the country. While others are being welcomed with open arms, that they're being prevented from entering some of the nearby countries. Then in some cases being beaten by fascists, we've seen a few reports. What have you been able to docent about that?

David Miliband: It's worse than a wrinkle, Brian. It's very, very serious. We were onto this as soon as we heard about it on Tuesday, Wednesday. We put out the press statement on Wednesday. We haven't experienced this ourselves, but we've had well-documented evidence that Africans and South Asians from India and elsewhere were being put in different lines. I haven't heard about the beatings that you refer to, but that is obviously completely unacceptable.

I was informed yesterday on a good authority that on the European side of the border, there had been immediate action to make sure that any such discrimination was stopped. I don't have yet good reports from on the Ukraine side of the border, but you're absolutely right to call it out. We're absolutely determined to call it out because it's unconscionable and is diametrically opposed to everything that we're supposed to stand for.

Brian Lehrer: We are almost out of time and your connection to us is starting to deteriorate, so let me ask you one last question. There was news yesterday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed on some kind of humanitarian corridor, which could be seen as a temporary cease-fire for the duration of the evacuation of civilians from the country. Is that real as far as you could tell?

David Miliband: Thanks for asking about that because there's a lot of confusion that people may be suffering from. The phrase humanitarian corridor has many meanings. It seems to mean in this case a chance for Ukrainians to get out of their homes. We've seen this movie before. We've seen in Syria where people were herded from one part of Syria to another only to suffer further pulverization [unintelligible 00:12:52] the country. If there is tending to the wounded, we are especially worried about pharmaceutical supplies and provision. That's something the International Rescue Committee is specialized in, we specialize in.

If there is humanity at work, good. It's said that the Ukrainians as well as the Russians are vouching for it, but let's not kid ourselves that this is the end of the story. The biggest needs in the next weeks, months, even years are going to be to get aid into Ukraine. It's one thing to look after the refugees in Europe, which is important, but the situation of what may become besieged cities inside Ukraine is going to become acute.

Brian Lehrer: That's a-

David Miliband: There's no mercy being shown by the Russians in Syria.

Brian Lehrer: =whole other topic.

David Miliband: I know that you know this story.

Brian Lehrer: [crosstalk] That we didn't even get to really and that is the internal refugees, and because the phone is breaking up so bad, and we're at the end of our time anyway, but we're going to have to leave it there. David Miliband, who knows where in the world he is right now as he is working--

David Miliband: That's on the Upper West Side borough.

Brian Lehrer: [chuckles] No.

David Miliband: It shouldn't be bad, but there you go. That's the New York internet. [laughs]

Brian Lehrer: That's right. That's either the New York internet or maybe a little cyber warfare. No, I'm kidding about that, but who knows? David Miliband, former UK foreign minister, is now the president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, which advocates for and helps refugees around the world. He also has an op-ed in The New York Times a few days ago called Ukraine Presents a Moral Crisis, Not Just a Military One. David, thank you very much.

David Miliband: Thank you very much.

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