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Brian: Brian Lehrer on WNYC and we'll turn now to an international story that some of you know is going on and some of you don't, but that is definitely worthy of more exposure. It even follows up on last year's Nobel Peace Prize. The Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 was awarded to the prime minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed, "For his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea."

Now, Ethiopia is in the midst of its largest conflict in nearly 30 years despite that peace prize. On November 4th, the Northern region of Tigray revolted declaring itself a breakaway state. In response, prime minister Ahmed announced the state of emergency deploying the military into the region. This past Sunday, Abiy declared the operation completed after government forces recaptured Tigray's regional capital of Mekelle following a 72-hour ultimatum for the rebels to surrender.

The fighting continues in the region and a communications blackout that began at the opening of hostilities is still in place. Ethiopia is the second-largest country in Africa by population. The African Union, the economic and political organization to which all African nations belong is headquartered in Addis Ababa, the capital. Any unrest carries with it implications that affect not only Ethiopia but the entire continent. Here to talk about those implications is Tom Gardner, Addis Ababa correspondent for The Economist. Tom, thank you for joining us. Hello from New York.

Tom: Hi, Brian.

Brian: Listeners, if we have any Ethiopian listeners out there right now, in particular, we would love to hear from you. Let everybody else in our listening area know what's going on in your country of origin, or maybe the country that your parents or grandparents, or whoever came from. 646-435-7280. Help us report the story, listeners with any kinds of ties to Ethiopia. What's important here that the rest of the world should know about more than they do? 646-435-7280. Or since we laid this out as having implications for the entire continent of Africa, really anybody with any ties to anywhere in Africa, if you're following this war in Ethiopia, give us a call with a question for Tom Gardner in Addis Ababa for The Economist or with your take.

646-435-7280, 646-435-7280. Do you want to background us a little bit on the prime minister and the one thing that people may have heard who don't follow news from Ethiopia that he won the Nobel Peace Prize last year? What was that for and how does it relate to what's going on today?

Tom: Sure. Abiy came to power in 2018. He came to power off the back of mass protest, his home region of Oromia, and also to an extent in Amhara region which neighbors Tigray. They were protesting against many things, but one key point was they were opposed to the dominance, really, of the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front, the TPLF which was the ruling party in Tigray, which is now at war with Abiy. When he came to power, he started, at least on paper, democratizing, he released political prisoners, he unmuzzled the press, he started an economic liberalization agenda.

He also started to sideline and downsize the TPLF in this federal government in Addis Ababa. He also, two months after becoming prime minister, made peace with Eritrea. Eritrea is the country to the North of Tigray, which Ethiopia went to war with in 1998 to 2000, an incredibly bloody war. Eritrea, and this is quite important, was part of Ethiopia up until 1993. The Eritrean liberation rebels fought alongside the TPLF in the 1970s and 1980s against the central government in Addis Abba and they have a very complicated, tempestuous history, particularly the president of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki.

His relationship with the TPLF is very bitter. When Abiy made peace with Eritrea, and he won a Nobel Peace Prize the following year for that, what people didn't really understand at the time was that this was also something of a security pack sign between Abiy and Isaias and it was certainly seen that way in Tigray. They saw this as essentially an alliance to sideline and pressure them ultimately so Isaias could exact the revenge for Eritrea's defeat two decades earlier. As you can see, it's a very complicated history, but fast forward to today, the Tigrayan leadership has been what why wars for last two years, essentially hold up in Tigray and its original capital Mekelle.

Tensions with Addis and with Abiy had been mounting, and they certainly felt encircled because to their North was Isaias and his forces. Again, it's a complicated story and all sides, really, have played a role in escalating things but in September of this year, the TPLF went ahead and held regional elections in defiance of Abiy and the federal government, which had postponed the national elections because of COVID. They went ahead, held these elections and you enter this kind of game of mutual delegitimization on both sides. The TPLF said Abiy is an illegitimate, illegal dictator bent on dismantling the constitution and turning himself into a dictator, and Abiy and his allies were calling the TPLF essentially a renegade. Junta is the name they use. Then on November, the fourth, the war began.

Brian: Can you talk about the human toll here? As of a week ago, the numbers I'm seeing are that 40,000 refugees from the Tigray region have fled to Sudan. The Tigray region itself is host to over 100,000 Eritrean refugees. I've heard reports of mass slaughter, I don't know if those can be confirmed. How has this conflict affecting the already critical refugee crisis in Ethiopia, and what human toll is it taking even in addition to that?

Tom: You've got two things there really, you've got quite a sizeable population of Eritrean refugees, as you mentioned, about 100,000 who are in Tigray. They'd been fleeing the dictatorship of Isaias Afwerki across the border. They'd been there for many years. They're now basically trapped in the middle of this conflict. From what I hear, they have been caught literally in the crossfire. We know there have been serious bloodshed there. They've also been denied food supplies, medical supplies. That, I should say, applies to the whole of Tigray, which has been essentially cut off from humanitarian access since the war began, although there are some signs now that there will be a bit more access.

The UN says it has agreed to a deal at least to be able to access some of the areas that the federal government has liberated. That's one problem. Then you have the plight of Tigrayan refugees who crossed into neighboring Sudan, as you said, there are about 44,000, 45,000, according to the UN at the latest count. That's very troubling. Equally troubling is the fact that in the last week, we have had reports that the border has been essentially blocked by the Ethiopian military to prevent more Tigrayan refugees entering Sudan.

This suffocation of Tigray is something that many people are very alarmed about. Then you mentioned the massacres or atrocities and these are yes, very hard to know the true details. Amnesty International confirmed that there was indeed a particularly appalling massacre, about 600 or so civilians slaughtered on November the 9th. We don't really know the full details of what happened. It does seem it was mostly Amhara civilians who were killed. That's according to both Amnesty and to the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, who did manage to send some investigators there. Amhara, for the listeners who don't know, is the neighboring state on the Western South of Tigray, which has disputed territory, these territorial claims and so the ethnic dimension to that fighting has been something that has been really alarming.

It seems, from the reports we're hearing from Tigrayan refugees in Sudan, that it has gone both ways, that there have been ethnic militias involved in targeting civilians from both sides. You're going to have a large population of Tigrayan refugees in Sudan who are going to be very apprehensive, I think, about returning. The Ethiopian government has said they want to welcome them back as soon as possible but there is going to be, and I'm told from refugees there, that they really fear retaliation. That's another thing to watch and certainly, they know that Sudanese authorities are quite concerned about the prospect of prolonged displacement and a prolonged refugee problem on their border.

Brian: Let's take a phone call. Abby in South Plainfield, you're on WNYC. Hi, Abby?

Abby: Oh, hi. Thank you for taking my call. This is an extremely important discussion. I'm so glad you're covering it, Brian. I listen to you every day, and it's great. I am an Ethiopian origin. What's happening in Ethiopia, the world has to pay extremely close attention. Because right now what's happening is brothers killing brothers. There is no difference between the two people, Eritrea or Tigray or the rest of it. What's happening is human tragedy. The Amharas are have been killed and slaughtered. ISIS, forget it. You would think ISIS it was bad, what's happening in Ethiopia is extremely-- I can't even comprehend it because this has my family, my heritage, and everything that's there.

We all have to pay attention to what's going on because if we don't stop this ethnic fight between each other, there's no end to it. Today is Tigray and tomorrow's Amhara, and then Oromo and what? There's no end to it. I understand Dr. Abiy. He has no choice at this point of the game because he was forced to it, but this has to stop. The world has to pay attention because the implication will include the whole continent of Africa and beyond. Because Ethiopia with the Abay, with the Dam that's happening, with conflict with Egypt and Sudan, I can't even tell you. This is something that the world must pay attention to.

Brian: Abby, thank you so much for making it clear to a lot of other listeners what some of the broader implications are. Let's take another call. Robert, in Brooklyn, you're on WNYC. Hello, Robert.

Robert: Hello, Brian. Thank you for taking my call. Hello, all you audience, listeners listening. The problem in Ethiopia is a very, very disturbing problem. I have family there, but I'm here in Brooklyn. I got family in the Bronx too, but most of my family are over there in Ethiopia.

Brian: What would you like to see done, Robert?

Robert: I want to send them some money, but there's no [unintelligible 00:13:14] there. There's no contact.

Brian: Were you able to send them money in the past and the recent fighting has cut off those lines?

Robert: Yes.

Brian: Robert, there's an additional problem that I hadn't known about before. Remittances not being able to get sent to people there who might really need the money from relatives here. Were you aware of that? Tom Gardner from The Economist?

Tom: Yes, I was aware of that. There are two issues here. The banks in Tigray were closed at the start of a conflict putatively, according to the federal government, because there had been looting by Tigrayan forces there. People have not been able to access their money. Then after about 10 days into the conflict, they were reopened, but only manually. ATMs didn't work and I'm not entirely sure what the exact circumstances are now for people there that want to access remittances. I do know an additional problem which we might talk about later. This is in regards to ethnic profiling of ordinary Tigrayans both in Tigray and Addis and elsewhere.

The National Bank of Ethiopia actually froze bank accounts opened in Tigray. Maybe it was specifically Mekelle, but essentially people here in Addis have not been able to send money or deposit money in their bank accounts, or withdraw money from the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia. That's something I've been hearing from quite a few different people here in Addis. There is definitely a problem with regards to ordinary Tigrayans being able to access money. That's one of the reasons why the humanitarian community in the UN is so concerned really about food supplies and basic living conditions in Tigray.

Brian: To the first caller's concern, her emotional plea from the heart about, brother killing brother. I see that the Ethiopian government runs on a policy that they call ethnic federalism. Can you explain what that is?

Tom: Sure. Ethnic federalism or it's also known to its supporters as multinational federalism is basically the constitutional federal settlement which was introduced in 1995 really by the TPLF and its allies, which came to power in 1991 after a long guerrilla struggle I alluded to earlier. What it does, and it is very controversial, is it essentially divided up the country into ethnically defined regions like Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, and others. There are 10 of them, and they have semi-sovereign powers, including, and this is the key provision, self-determination up to secession. Every regional state basically has the right to secede.

Importantly, it was on that basis that Eritrea seceded in 1993. For some, it's probably the most controversial and bitterly contested issue in Ethiopian politics. It is the key fault line between those who support it and those who oppose it. Some people argue that this is essentially what this war is really being fought over. It's controversial because essentially it institutionalizes ethnic identity. Its supporters will say it merely recognizes nations and nationalities. Something like, maybe the former Soviet Union or other ethnic federations like that. It says, "Tigray is a nation. Amhara, it's a nation. Oromia, these are nations and the only way that they can live together is if they have these kind of sovereign powers."

To its opponents, yes, this is the cause of all these inter-ethnic conflicts because it makes politics about identity. It makes the key dividing line in all politics, ethnicity, or nationality, or however you want to think about it. Over the last 30 years, but certainly, in the last two years, there have been extraordinary inter-communal, inter-ethnic conflicts, which have displaced and killed, we're talking hundreds and thousands, if not millions, in the last two, three years alone.

Brian: We have two minutes left in this segment. Let me get one caller in here, in addition to the ones that we've had from West Africa, originally Nigeria. I think he's going to help us understand why there are such huge implications to this beyond even what's going on in Ethiopia itself, which for those who don't know, the map of Africa is in East Africa. Lucas in Mount Vernon, you're on WNYC, thank you so much. We have one minute for your call.

Lucas: Hi. Thank you, Brian. I'm a longtime listener. First of all, I think Abiy should be stripped of his Nobel Peace Prize because he's not a man of peace. An average African leader, they like to power trip. This is their ego in play. Let's go back to the creation of all African countries. We are different tribes being caught together. I'm a Nigerian. I'm Yoruba by tribe. I have Yoruba in Benin Republic, and they are not Nigerians. I'm in a country with Igbo, Hausa. Hausas have more Fulani people in Nigeria and Chad.

Look, for example, the last EndSARS protest in Nigeria. The youth came out peacefully to protest police brutality and the president sent military men to kill these guys. As long as the West refuse to punish all African leaders that do these, that killed their people with impunity, it's still going to continue.

Brian: Lucas, I have to leave it there because we are out of time. Tom, as we end, Lucas makes a very important point. He says as long as the West continues to allow this to happen, it will continue to go on. You report for The Economist, British-based publication. I'm here in the United States. We're about to have a change of administration. What is the role of the West and what could it be?

Tom: I should start by saying, I think the external powers have rather limited leverage or influence in Ethiopia particularly. This is a country which really cherishes its national sovereignty, this is a country which was never colonized, it famously defeated the Italians. It really does not take kindly to outsiders intruding, so there's always a basic limitation to what outsiders can do. I know that the Europeans are mulling potentially withdrawing or cutting aid in order to try and pressure both sides to stop fighting.

I don't think the Americans have a great deal of-- The Trump administration is somewhat blown its leverage by cutting aid earlier this year over the Nile dam dispute with Egypt, which the caller, Abby, referred to earlier. I don't think the Americans at the moment are really best placed. Ultimately, this is probably something that's going to have to be resolved entirely or with the help of the African Union, which is probably the best forum for external pressure.

Brian: Tom Gardner, Addis Ababa correspondent for The Economist. Thank you, and thanks to our callers for letting a lot of other listeners who are not familiar with what's been going on in Ethiopia learn a little more about it. Thank you so much.

Tom: Thank you, Brian

Brian: Brian Lehrer on WNYC, more to come.

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