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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Now, our Climate Story of the Week, which we're doing every Tuesday on the show all this year. Less than two weeks ago, on September 26th, Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane. It's hurricane season obviously, but the intensity with which the storm accumulated power has destroyed communities far from the shore.

Helene plowed through as far north as the Blue Ridge Mountains and left communities like Asheville, North Carolina, way inland in the wake of destruction. According to ABC News, the death toll in Asheville now stands at 230 people all the way hundreds of miles actually. I should look up the exact distance, but it's in the foothills of the mountains in the western part of the state.

This community, notably one that residents thought was a climate haven, exempt from the most devastating impacts of climate change. Now, Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall in Florida tomorrow, also as a Category 4 storm. Here's Miami meteorologist John Morales from NBC 6 South Florida. He's a longtime meteorologist who got emotional as you'll hear when reporting on the incoming storm.

John Morales: It's an incredible, incredible, incredible hurricane. It has dropped-- [sighs] it has dropped 50 millibars in 10 hours. I apologize. This is just horrific. Maximum sustained winds are 160 miles per hour. It is just gaining strength in the Gulf of Mexico, where you can imagine, the seas are just so incredibly, incredibly hot, record hot as you might imagine. You know what's driving that. I don't need to tell you. Global warming, climate change leading to this and becoming an increasing threat.

Brian Lehrer: John Morales, TV meteorologist on Channel 6, NBC 6 South Florida. Joining us now to discuss all this and more is Manuela Andreoni, climate and environmental reporter at The New York Times and a writer for their Climate Forward newsletter. Manuela, thanks for your time today. Welcome back to WNYC.

Manuela Andreoni: Hi. Thank you for having me.

Brian Lehrer: Listening to that clip of John Morales struck by how meteorologists try to stay in their lane of weather as opposed to climate. In this case, John Morales felt compelled because of the facts that he's seeing in front of his own two eyes to link the two, even though he didn't say the words "climate change" in that clip. He says, "You know what's driving that." What he described, the quote, "The seas are just so incredibly hot, record hot as you might imagine," I guess that's an indication of climate change if they're getting warmer and warmer year by year. We know that warmer water leads to more intense hurricanes, so would you further describe that link?

Manuela Andreoni: Yes, so we know that the Gulf of Mexico sea surface has increased about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit between 1970 and 2020. The past couple of years, as he described, have seen record temperatures. Warmer oceans, they help drive all sorts of climate phenomenons, including making hurricanes intensify a lot faster. We saw that Helene turned into, I believe, Category 1 to Category 4 in just a day. We're seeing that with Milton again. Yes, there's a big link there that people should be aware of.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and I saw this morning that Milton actually hit a Category 5, although it's expected to be a 4 when it hits land in Florida tomorrow. Just a slight correction to what I said before. The meteorologist did say the words "global warming" and "climate change" later in that clip that we played, not the first time that he referred to it a little more indirectly. Yes, we looked up the distance between Asheville, North Carolina, and the nearest coastline. It's around 300 miles, 278 miles to Folly Beach, South Carolina.

That's unbelievable to think that a hurricane is going to be strong enough to kill people there and otherwise devastate the community that far inland. You write that Helene may have gotten an extra boost from the damp grounds left by rains that swept through the region before it hit Asheville. You're right. Scientists call this phenomenon the "brown ocean effect." Is that also linked to climate change? Maybe you can define the brown ocean effect for our listeners.

Manuela Andreoni: My colleague, Raymond Zhong, who writes about climate science here at our team, wrote a story specifically about this that I encourage readers to look for. What basically happens is that what powers hurricanes are the warm oceans, right? It makes sense that once they go further inland, they lose that engine powering them. When the ground became damp from the rains that swept through the region before, that water mimicked the effect of the oceans. That continued to power the storm and that's why it was so strong when it got there.

Now, we always wait for the scientists to do the studies to draw direct link to climate change and we don't want to say anything before that. What we can say is that when we have a warmer atmosphere and we know that climate change causes that-- sorry, the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation cause that atmosphere to be warmer, we know that atmosphere holds a lot more water. Just the way physics works. That water that's stored in the atmosphere then becomes rain. It rains a lot harder than you would have if the atmosphere wasn't so warm.

Brian Lehrer: For listeners who aren't familiar, can you explain the concept of a so-called "climate haven"? Why was that in your story?

Manuela Andreoni: We have heard in recent years about people moving into places because they perceive the risks of climate change to be smaller in those places. They were also going there for economic reasons because it was cheaper like home insurance was cheaper, which was, of course, also associated to smaller climate risks. Then as this kind of information passed from person to person, these places started becoming called "climate havens," which people understood to be as places which are safe from climate change.

Well, that's not true. Such places don't exist. Climate change touches every corner of the planet. You can't run away from them, from climate change. It is true that some places are safer because they have fewer risks, because they're not very close to a forest that burns very frequently, because they're not sinking like Miami. Those places still have to spend money to adapt to climate change. There's no avoiding that. It just means that it will be cheaper to do that than in places that face more bigger risks.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, any questions or comments for Manuela Andreoni, environmental and climate reporter at The New York Times and a writer for their Climate Forward newsletter, as we talk about hurricanes Helene and Milton and related climate issues? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Call or text. We've established that the water is warming more than in the past and warm waters lead to stronger hurricanes. Do you have the numbers in front of you? I'm just curious on how much warmer the Gulf of Mexico where these two hurricanes originated might be than they were 20 years ago, 50 years ago. Any of that?

Manuela Andreoni: I have numbers from the US government here. I don't have numbers for this year. Between 1970 and 2020, they warmed 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit or 1 degrees Celsius. That's about 0.3 Fahrenheit degrees per decade. That may not sound like very much, but we're talking about average temperatures and for a big place. That does mean that when it is a lot warm in years like this one and last year when it is a lot warmer, that becomes a much greater difference.

Brian Lehrer: A lot of those what seem like small numbers are probably hard for the public to get their minds around. We've talked about this before. If the UN target is 1.5 degrees Celsius, which is only two-point-something degrees Fahrenheit of extra warming before there's catastrophic impact, people might think, "Well, a couple of degrees? A couple of degrees doesn't change my life from one season to the next, from one day to the next." Here we are again with fractions of a percent or fractions of a degree warmer each decade but adding up to something. Can you explain that a little more, why such a small difference makes such a big difference?

Manuela Andreoni: Well, the climate is so complex. I don't blame listeners and people at large for struggling to wrap their heads around it. We struggle every day to make it as clear as possible. Canada had those big fires, right? We're talking about a world that warmed 1.2 to 1.3 degrees Celsius on average. Up there in the Arctic, you may have warmed three or four degrees, right? That changes the environment in a way that makes it more susceptible to fire.

We can't think about these temperatures as just what we're feeling when we go outside and it's a little bit warmer and we need a jacket or not. We have to see these temperatures as major causes of changes in how the planet works and how ocean currents work and how hurricanes work. I encourage people to listen to these stories and read these stories because it is hard to understand. The scientists are here telling us as they've been telling us for decades that every degree really matters.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a phone call from the perhaps aptly named for this conversation, Deforest in Yonkers. You're on WNYC, Deforest. Thank you for calling in. Hello.

Deforest: Everybody who tells that joke thinks they're telling it for the first time. [chuckles]

Brian Lehrer: I don't think I've ever spoken to you before. Okay, go ahead. Fair enough.

[laughter]

Deforest: Anyway, and I'll need you all to help me with this, but I want to remind people about Ida that came through in 2021. I think it made landfall down in New Orleans and traveled a thousand miles across land and did more damage in the tri-state area than it did when it crossed New Orleans. I think there are more deaths and more property damage in the tri-state area. It wasn't Ida when it got up here, but it was a tropical depression. It was from Ida that this damage was-- and it traveled a thousand miles across land.

Brian Lehrer: It's a great point. Even the iconic storm Sandy in the New York area was not a hurricane by the time it hit New York, but we know all the damage that caused. It got the informal moniker "Superstorm Sandy" because they couldn't technically call it Hurricane Sandy, but its effect was of a superstorm. You're saying the same thing happened with Ida similarly?

Deforest: Well, the thing for me was that the damage, it traveled a thousand miles across land.

Brian Lehrer: Right.

Deforest: Generally, when they hit land, they're supposed to be downgraded, but it was so powerful that if I'm remembering this correctly and your meteorologist may be able to tell me if I'm wrong about this, but it became like a tropical depression. It downgraded it, but the point was it was still powerful enough to do more damage a thousand miles up in the tri-state area than it was when it made landfall in the New Orleans area.

Brian Lehrer: Deforest, thank you. Please call us again. I won't make that joke about your name. Manuela, you're not a meteorologist, but you're a climate reporter for The Times. Any reflection on what he was saying?

Manuela Andreoni: I think it just helps show what we were talking about that these extreme weather events, they touch every corner of the planet in ways that we may not imagine. When scientists say we need to prepare, I think we need to take that seriously.

Brian Lehrer: On the climate havens, you write, "Data and research that have been analyzed shows that US counties that regularly get hit by hurricanes face major wildfires and floods and swelter under punishing heat have also been some of the most popular places to move." You want to give us an example? Maybe Asheville, North Carolina itself is an example. I know it's considered a hip arts haven these days, among other things.

Manuela Andreoni: Yes, I want to give you an example. Let me just look it up really quickly here. I think Florida is a great example. The outer skirts of the Tampa metro area, for example, is one place. We have also seen people go to the region around Houston and the regions around Austin. These areas have grown really rapidly even as they face extreme weather threats. Houston has been regularly pummeled by hurricanes, for example. We've seen people in California move to the fire-prone foothills of the Sierra Nevada, for example. People looking for cheaper housing, looking for better, warmer weather, they're also moving toward disaster areas.

Brian Lehrer: Asheville itself, we see census data that shows records of more than 13% population growth between the 2010 and the 2020 census. We know about the Phoenix area and elsewhere in Southern Arizona, one of the most popular places for Americans in the western part of the country to retire to. Just like people in the east moved to Florida. The unbelievable heat. Everybody knows it gets hot in Phoenix in the summer, but it's reaching crazy proportions in the last few years. People maybe don't really know all of what they've signed up for.

We're in our Climate Story of the Week, which we're doing every Tuesday on the show all this year today with Manuela Andreoni, climate and environment reporter for The New York Times and their Cimate Forward newsletter, as we talk about hurricanes Helene and Milton in the climate context. Kathy in West Islip, I think, is being haunted by that clip of the crying meteorologist from Miami that we were playing a minute ago. Julianna, can you bring down Kathy on Line 7 there? I can't seem to do it with my clicker. There we go. Kathy, you're on-- Not yet. Kathy, you're on WNYC now.

Kathy: Hello?

Brian Lehrer: Hi. Sorry about that.

Kathy: Hi. Hi, that's okay. Yes, it broke my heart to hear him saying, "Well, you know the reason why," because a lot of people don't know the reason why. There's been so much misinformation, disinformation spread in a very well-greased and very expensive campaign to confuse people about climate change. A lot of people are resistant to the idea that a lot of these horrible weather events that we're suffering from and are causing such great damage and death are caused by climate change right now today in our country to people living here. I think the Yale School for Climate Change, the Yale Center for Climate Change Communication, has done a lot of work on this.

They find that people not talking about climate change because it's become a taboo subject leaves people confused and ignorant about what's really going on, even though this is going to have terrible impacts on their lives. I think every meteorologist, every reporter reports on these really horrendous weather events should specifically say, "This is caused by climate change. This is why we're suffering in this way. This is why it's costing us billions and billions and billions of dollars every year to try and recover from this," because we need to take action. As long as it can be just like, "Well, I don't know. I don't know," nothing will happen. If that link is made to things that actually happen in people's lives, they take it seriously.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you, Kathy. We heard in the vice presidential debate just last week when JD Vance was asked, "Do you believe climate change is a hoax?" He didn't answer the question. He just said, "We need all our energy sources." Sowing doubt and uncertainty by not answering the question even when he didn't say, "I think climate change is a hoax." Madison in Manhattan, who I think knows that South Florida meteorologist or met him, who we played the clip of. Madison, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Madison: Hi, Brian. Thank you for taking my call. Yes, I actually moved up from Miami last year. I'm very active with the environmental advocacy down there. I've met him several times because he's actually a huge environmental activist. In South Florida, he actually became a huge hero after Hurricane Andrew because of his reporting. Unfortunately, in the last few years, he's been demonized for his stance on climate change. Just seeing his emotion yesterday, I can totally understand where he's coming from and his frustrations. I have to say, he's a very nice guy, amazing reporter, and absolutely cares about the environment as well as the next generation.

Brian Lehrer: All right, a Florida media shout-out from Madison in Manhattan. Thank you very much. Dominic in Smithtown, you're on WNYC. Hi, Dominic.

Dominic: Hi, Brian. Thanks so much, sir, for taking my call today.

Brian Lehrer: Sure.

Dominic: Living on Long Island, we've gotten hit by some of the worst hurricanes my lifetime. I'm about 30, so Hurricane Sandy was the clearest in my memory. I was talking to my friend the other day about what kind of protections do we have on the island for these ever-increasing hurricanes. Really, it's just Fire Island. It's just being a huge sand barrier. If we get hit with something massive, it could really devastate the island. How far the government's going to go? There's a bunch of plans out there for Lower Manhattan and what to do about storm surges and everything like that. How much money can we really spend to save New York, where these millions and millions of people live their lives every day? I can take my question off the air. Thank you so much.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much. Call us again. Yes, it's a great question to localize this. If we're talking about climate havens like Asheville, North Carolina, we all know New York City and Long Island where Dominic is calling from, our coastals so they can be hit by hurricanes and other things that cause rising sea levels. Have you reported locally on this? I think you're a national reporter, Manuela, but he's worried about Fire Island. He's worried about other areas along the shore.

Manuela Andreoni: Yes, I haven't reported on this locally, but I think it's a really good question that officials are grappling with. There are several New York plans about what to do. We know that last year when there were very intense rains in New York and New Jersey, we saw how New Jersey was much better prepared for it because they had suffered so much. There are ways to prepare and it just needs to be a priority, right? Of course, there's a limit to how much we can adapt, but there are ways to adapt. There are cities that are doing better than others.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take one more call from Laurie in Warwick, New York, who has the view of a landscape designer on this, who apparently got a wake-up call 25 years ago from a storm back then. Laurie, am I describing that right? Hi, you're on WNYC.

Laurie: Hi. We have poor reception here, but can you hear me?

Brian Lehrer: Yes, we got you.

Laurie: Okay. Yes, Hurricane Floyd. I worked in Carlstadt, New Jersey, and I lived in the highlands of New Jersey. All the highways were flooded out on my way home. I worked nights and I thought, "Oh, good, I live in the highlands." Trees were down. For the first time, I really started thinking about how much was affected. The bridges that were damaged in Hurricane Floyd really never recovered.

There are rivers in Bergen County whose courses were changed because of just the way things eroded and so on. I just noticed how much has shifted and changed, how much is affected by invasive bugs and animals and plants that were never here 10 years ago, eight years ago, when we bought our house in Warwick. It's really discouraging to go outside and work outside and be outdoors.

I think we all need to be really compassionate about our planet and realize this affects all of us. What can I do to keep my energy bill low? How can we lower anything we can do to help keep things in check? The flooding in 2011, I think, in Vermont, in New York State, I think, was the first time people were really thinking about what happens other than coastal flooding. I just wanted to mention some of these.

Brian Lehrer: I think that was Irene, right?

Laurie: Irene, yes.

Brian Lehrer: Hurricane Irene hit hard so far north of the city. Laurie, thank you very much for your call. Really appreciate it. Manuela, before you go, we've been talking about all this moisture damage from the warming climate. Before your job at The Times, I want to let our listeners know, you are a rainforest investigations fellow at the Pulitzer Center. I just want to get your take briefly on a recent Times story about the Amazon River. It's the world's largest and it's drying up. What's going on and how is it impacting the people of Brazil? I think you've been keeping an eye on this. Again, maybe it's why some people call it "climate weirding." It can cause moisture and it can cause dryness, right?

Manuela Andreoni: Absolutely, and it's strange because the same warm oceans that are intensifying the hurricanes here in the US are also being blamed for causing the drought in the Amazon. The same warmth in the Atlantic Ocean. It's weird, [chuckles] but it's really concerning. The Amazon River is at its lowest. It's tragic because in the Amazon, there aren't so many roads. As experts say, there shouldn't because those cause massive deforestation. People get around by boat.

Now, they are really struggling to reach anywhere, to go to the hospital, to go to school because those rivers have dried up. Exports of soy in Brazil have also been impacted because those big barges are struggling to get across these dry rivers. It's a really shocking development that people are really scared about. This drought has also increased forest fires in areas of pristine forest, which was not what used to happen. The forest is also getting further destroyed by this drought. It's a really, really concerning phenomenon.

Brian Lehrer: As we hope that Hurricane Milton headed towards some of the same areas as Hurricane Helene doesn't cause as much death and destruction, that's our Climate Story of the Week. We thank Manuela Andreoni, climate and environment reporter at The New York Times and a writer for their Climate Forward newsletter. Manuela, thanks for coming on with us again.

Manuela Andreoni: Thank you so much.

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