Kai Wright: It's Notes from America. I'm Kai Wright, and you're listening to our pop-up election series, On The Call. It's where I'm just ringing up people who are smart about some aspect of this now quite exciting election cycle and picking their brains. This week, as the Democratic National Convention unfolds, I figured it's time to talk a little horse race. I found myself obsessing over some survey data that the Cook Political Report published.

On the call, I've got Patrick Toomey, who helped create the polling I've been obsessing over. He's a partner at the research firm BSG, which is collaborating with the Cook Political Report on what they're calling the Swing State Project. That is just what it sounds like. They're polling in seven swing states, and they've just released their August numbers. Patrick, thank you for getting on the call with me.

Patrick Toomey: Thank you so much for having me to talk about the polling.

Kai Wright: Coming live from the Democratic National Convention, I should say, also, and I should say for context, your background in political polling has been with a lot of Democratic Party organizations, including the Obama White House.

Patrick Toomey: That's correct.

Kai Wright: How's it at the DNC? What's going on there?

Patrick Toomey: It's very exciting to be here. I think we've gone from a party where there was a lot of hand-wringing and concern and not as much enthusiasm as we would like to see to a really excited party that's energizing the country, and even non-core party members to come over to our side. The speeches last night were fantastic, and it was a reminder of what our party felt like back in the Obama years. The excitement, the hope, and the inspiration.

Kai Wright: Bringing back the joy, as they have said, of the Harris campaign. The top line of the August numbers of your poll is basically a dead heat in these swing states, but Harris is up 48% to 47%. If you had to point to one thing in the poll, looking at the numbers that explains that fact, what would you point to?

Patrick Toomey: In some ways, it feels like the obvious answer, and sometimes the answer is staring us right in the face. For months, we knew there was a large share of the electorate who was dissatisfied with their choices in this election. They didn't want to vote for Trump or Biden. They wanted a new option from specifically those two men. Now they have a new choice, and voters are moving towards that new choice.

We saw in this poll, a majority of voters say that they believe Harris represents a chance to turn the page on the Biden and Trump era, that was a majority of voters overall, and that was even more pronounced among this group that's been called double haters. The folks who are unfavorable to both Biden and Trump. Those folks do see Harris, at least for now, as representing change, as representing a new generation of leadership. This is what they were asking for, and it's been delivered to them, and they're responding in kind.

Kai Wright: 56% was the number. That also is one of the first numbers that jumped out of me when I was reading through, it's like, wow, 50% or 60% say, "This is a chance to turn the page from those two men." [chuckles] Related to that, from the beginning of-- From the beginning, it's been a month. From the moment that it became clear that Harris was going to be the nominee, there was immediate hand-wringing over whether she could win because of her identities as a woman, as a woman of color. Is there something in your poll that puts that particular anxiety to rest, whether or not she will win, but that it's like, "Oh, it's even possible?"

Patrick Toomey: Yes, one of the problems that Biden was having in his campaign is he wasn't winning over as many voters as he won in 2020. Now, we saw that about 15% of voters who told us in our poll that they had voted for him in 2020 weren't backing him. They weren't all backing Trump. Some of them were undecided. Some of them were considering third-party options. She's brought some of those voters back home, and specifically, many of those voters that she's brought back home are voters of color, particularly, Black voters, particularly Black women, and women voters in general, including white women.

It's not just that she can win in spite of those things, it's that there's a set of voters who can be described using the same demographic terms, who weren't satisfied with the Democratic nominee and weren't sure they were going to vote for him. In Harris, they see someone who-- Another number we saw in this poll was 54% of voters telling us that they thought Harris was someone who cares about people like them. I don't actually think that that comes down purely to demographics and what folks look like, but to suggest that Harris's identity is somehow a negative here when the voters that we need to energize meet the same demographic descriptions, I think is a misunderstanding the dynamics.

Kai Wright: Misunderstands the electorate at this stage in history. I was bummed to see that majorities say that she would never be taken seriously as a leader. There was a question I was like, "Would you agree that she'll never be taken seriously as a leader?" Majority agreed with that. What was the other version of it? Oh, that she doesn't have enough experience. Majority agreed with that. Whatever I think about Kamala Harris, that neither thing matches her resume given how long she has, in fact, been a leader in elected office. I don't know. What do you make of those numbers?

Patrick Toomey: I think one thing to note there is, while it was true that a slight majority agreed with those statements, and we tested those because we wanted to really explore the case that the Trump campaign is making and intends to make against Harris and really understand that, not shy away from exploring that. One thing to note there is, while it is a small majority that share who strongly agree with that statement is in the 30%. It's a majority in part because there's folks who said, "Yes, I somewhat agree with that.

It's not necessarily that voters feel that they know that for sure about her and their opinions are set and made up here and they're never going to change. I think a lot of folks are still being introduced to Vice President Harris, and it's worth keeping in mind this poll was in the field a couple of weeks ago, and folks already have been introduced to her more at this point. The other thing to note is folk's concerns about Trump were much higher.

While they acknowledged that people might not take her seriously as a leader, half of the electorate said that. We had 59% of the electorate saying Trump's second term agenda is too focused on retribution against his enemies. We had 57% saying it's too focused on implementing extreme policies, 57% saying he's too erratic and out of control. I mentioned that because voters aren't making a choice whether or not Harris should be president, period, they're choosing between a set of candidates.

While some may, at this point, still have some concerns about Harris, their concerns about Trump are much greater. One other thing I would point out that I think is really interesting about that too unserious number and this is a small difference. I don't want to BS you on that. We asked it two ways. We asked, "Will she be taken seriously as a leader by other people, people who aren't you? How do you think other people are going to respond to her versus do you think she's too unserious to be a leader?" A majority disagreed with the statement, 51% that she is objectively too unserious to be president, and a small majority agreed that she might be seen that way by other people.

Kai Wright: It's so interesting. It's like this continued thing where it's like people are projecting-- People have this idea of America's biases. That's what I'm reading into that and are saying it's not me, but I think other people feel this way. It's such an interesting dynamic that this candidacy has brought to the fore.

Patrick Toomey: It is, and if I were Harris, I'd much rather this tension exist in this direction where people think, "Maybe other people don't like her, but I do like her." That's a much better version of that than, "I dislike her, even though I think maybe some other people do," because voters vote off of how they feel.

Kai Wright: Let's talk about paths to victory for a minute because you're looking at swing states. We know Harris needs Pennsylvania to win. It's very difficult to imagine her winning without getting either Michigan or Wisconsin as well. First off, do you agree with that premise?

Patrick Toomey: I do. I think that is how things are shaping up. Pennsylvania is going to be very important. Just given the total number of electoral votes that it has, it more than the other swing states, it's more pivotal in that way. I also think it's looking likely that she will need to win at least one of the other, what we call the blue wall states. That's the Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, not necessarily both. What I think is really important to remember, though, is if she does win all three, she's set.

Kai Wright: She's almost certainly the next president.

Patrick Toomey: Based off of how things are looking these days. Harris becoming the nominee has opened up additional paths. It doesn't mean that all of those paths are so easy or she's guaranteed a victory, but she has put states in what we might call the Sun Belt states like Arizona, but also in the southeast, Georgia and North Carolina, more in play than they were under Biden, and that's giving her more options. If she wins Pennsylvania and she wins one of Wisconsin or Michigan, she doesn't necessarily need to win both Wisconsin and Michigan because she might be able to pick up in Arizona or even in North Carolina or Georgia.

Kai Wright: This is where I was going because then I want to ask you about stuff that you're seeing in both states, is it like Harris has to win at least Pennsylvania plus Wisconsin or Michigan to have a chance? If she doesn't do that, she's just not going to be president in all likelihood. Trump has to win North Carolina and Georgia, if he doesn't do that, he's almost certainly not going to be president. There's others, but those are their basements.

We saw a lot about Georgia in 2020, but North Carolina I am particularly interested in because this is a place that Democrats have tried to win many, many, many, many times. They have not won other than going back to what was it, '19 since Jimmy Carter, I think, until Barack Obama's 2008 campaign is the only time they won. That's right. Right?

Patrick Toomey: I was in North Carolina as a student at UNC-Chapel Hill in 2008 when Obama won and it was such an exciting time. It's been disappointing that Democrats haven't been able to continue that momentum, at least in presidential elections in the state.

Kai Wright: Soberly, what are the numbers telling you about North Carolina at this point? Is it genuinely in play? Again, in a lot of elections, I have had this moment where people are like, "Oh, wow, that North Carolina is going to be as a swing state, and then it's not." Do you actually think North Carolina is in play for the Democrats at this point?

Patrick Toomey: I absolutely do, both at the top of the ticket, and we're certainly seeing this down ballot where the democratic candidate for Governor Josh Stein, is now [unintelligible 00:11:46] and Democrats have won the governor's race there and we've won Senate races as well in the recent past but North Carolina is absolutely a swing state. I think it can be tricky when a swing state tends to go in one direction more often than not. It can be easy to start to think, "Well, is it really a swing state?"

We're talking about even the past few elections are very close. We've seen like I've mentioned, a lot of ticket-splitting where Trump carried the state, but Roy Cooper won in 2016. There's no way to look at North Carolina and see it as anything other than a state that's in play. Now, what's changed since May and what's put it more in play is the overall dynamic I mentioned earlier that is particularly important in a state like North Carolina, which is that Black voters particularly, and specifically, I should say Black women, are now voting for Democrats at the top of the ticket.

They're more excited about their choice at the top of the ticket and they're backing Harris. She's now ahead in our poll in North Carolina. There are other public polls that have found the same thing. North Carolina looks like it may even be more favorable of an environment, at least right now, for Democrats than Georgia. They're both, though, going to be incredibly important swing states in this election and continue to be so.

Kai Wright: As you point out, North Carolina has a governor's election and the Democrat is running against a very Trumpy Black Republican, which is interesting. How is that election scrambling things or how is it interplaying with the presidential election?

Patrick Toomey: Well, we don't necessarily have all of the questions in this poll to answer that concretely, but I think what we're seeing is Robinson reinforcing the idea that Republicans stand for a lot of the things that Democrats say that they stand for. They're, frankly, to use the word of the moment, a little weird and not necessarily the type of leaders that you want to have in charge. Even if maybe be you're more conservative on immigration, even if maybe you're more conservative on the economy and you favor what you believe to be the Republican Party's positions on those issues.

We're seeing voters say, "Yes," but what we need is good leaders. If we don't have good leadership, it doesn't matter what your position is. It doesn't matter what your policies are. I think both at the top of the ticket and in the governor's race in North Carolina, we're seeing more and more voters say these are maybe not the people who should be leading my state or my country. That serves to reinforce a feeling about the Republican Party in general. I think both elections play off of one another in that way.

Kai Wright: North Carolina will be an interesting place to watch. Let's take a break. I'm talking with Patrick Toomey of the research firm BSG. He's part of a collaboration with Cook Political Report in which they are tracking the polls in seven swing states. When we come back, we can look at what you're seeing on some of the issues themselves. Stay with us.

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Kai Wright: Okay, Patrick, to quote the very quotable James Carville truism of 1992, it's the economy, stupid. That certainly feels like a really important part of this election. You polled people on what they think an overwhelming majority think inflation is getting worse, which it's not, but that is what people think still.

Patrick Toomey: It is. I will note one thing that I think is interesting is the share of people who think it's getting worse has gone down since May. That sense, even though it's an overwhelming majority, that's reducing. I also think it's worth keeping in mind that folks answering that question, I think in some ways, what they're saying is it's not getting better. It still feels very painful for me. This isn't an issue that I'm ready for my leaders to move beyond or say, "Hey, we're doing great on this now."

Prices are still high, people's incomes are not keeping up with the cost of living. Democrats need to be running on messages around affordability, that we are the party that cares about working people, that is fighting for working people, that believes if you work hard, you should be able to take care of your family. You shouldn't have to work multiple jobs to do so. I think that there are ways for Democrats to meet that feeling and I don't think telling people, "No, you're wrong, actually not getting worse," is the right approach for our party because it's pedantic and it's just not a great way.

Kai Wright: It's not how people feel. At least, I'm looking at your poll and it suggests to me that thus far this is a comfortable majority, said Donald Trump.

Patrick Toomey: I think that it is one of our tougher issues. I also do think we are seeing progress on this front. I mentioned that the share who say inflation is getting worse has declined since May. It's certainly not, Democrats are not winning on this issue. I was really struck with how narrow Trump's lead was here. We asked folks, who do you trust more on each of the following, and we asked half of the voters in our poll, just to deal with the economy in general. 50% chose Trump, 45% chose Harris.

It's a 5.0 advantage. It's an advantage, but I wouldn't consider that to be overwhelming. It's barely a majority for Trump. Then on getting inflation and the cost of living under control, specifically, 48% chose Trump, 42% chose Harris, 9% saying, I'm somewhere in the middle. I'm not sure, maybe I trust both equally or I distrust both equally, which is to say this is not exactly an issue Trump is owning overwhelmingly or has a major advantage on.

Kai Wright: There's a lot of people in both of those numbers left undecided one way or the other, I guess, in both that 5% analysis.

Patrick Toomey: Yes, and it's not enough of a lead for him to stake his entire candidacy only on the economy and inflation. I think Democrats were finding our footing on economic messaging. I'm saying this more as a democratic strategist than someone who conducted this poll simply to understand the electorate but we're finding our footing on messaging, on the economy, and we're closing that gap. It's not necessarily the barrier to supporting a Democrat at the top of the ticket that it was back in May.

Kai Wright: The other big thing that, of course, the Trump campaign is running on and that it seems like Democrats are struggling with is crime, but something stood out to me. More people said to you that they trust Trump to deal with crime and violence, but then more people said they trust Harris to make them feel safe. I thought that's interesting. What is the distinction there, you think?

Patrick Toomey: To me, that was one of the most striking numbers in this poll. It's a 1.0 advantage on making them feel safer for Harris. It's not an overwhelming advantage, but that's despite the fact that, again, by small amounts, more trust Trump on crime. They're by a bigger margin, more trust him on border security. He was a little bit more trusted also on foreign policy as a general concept, but then they don't feel safer with him in charge.

He's not able to leverage that issue into an advantage in this race because voters know who he is. They may say, "Yes, I like that he's really built a brand around being tough on China. I don't actually think he is tough on China, but he's built a message around that's baked in for some folks. They like that he's talked a lot about being tough on crime, but they also remember what it was like living under him, how anxious they felt all the time as a leader that--

Kai Wright: Do they though? That's what I wonder, though, Patrick, do people remember that? I don't know.

Patrick Toomey: I think they do and I think that's why we're seeing voters describe him as erratic and out of control. I think that that is the whole ballgame here. I think they were remembering that a little bit last back when the choices were between Biden and Trump because they were anxious about Biden's ability to lead as well, and so ended up being a bit more of a wash. Now, they're seeing the choice between an energetic leader from a new generation of leadership who does have experience and is a joyful warrior, as we were talking about earlier, and someone who they see as erratic, out of control, obsessed with retribution being too extreme.

Even if they say, "Yes, I do think we need to be tougher on the border. Yes, I do think that there needs to be tougher policies on crime. Maybe I'm more pro-police than I feel the Democratic Party is." I'm not actually sure that even with a leader whose platform has those policies, I'm actually going to be safer because I know who that leader is. I know who Trump is, and I can't really trust him to actually deliver on safety, even if his party's platform is one, has things that I like.

Kai Wright: The other number that stood out to me, and that is sobering, is overwhelming numbers of people, I think it was something like 80%, felt like they believed there was going to be more violence either before or after this election or both before and after this election, I think. I think it was in the 80-percentile. How? I guess I agree with it. I also feel like there's going to be more violence. What do you make of that number? It seems like it was the biggest outlying number in the poll in terms of, the thing that the most people agreed on the most strongly is that we're going to have violence.

Patrick Toomey: Yes, 82% told us they were concerned that there would be more violence after the election, including 40% who told us they were very concerned with 80% saying anything, yes. We're seeing people from across ideologies, across demographics, all on the same page here. Now I think, for many of these folks, it feels like past is prologue. It's not just that this poll came in the wake of the assassination attempt on Trump. These folks remember January 6th.

They know what happened last time, and they know that Trump isn't exactly backing away from all of that, even in the face of what we know happened and everything he's had to face, and the insurrectionists themselves have had to face in the legal system as a result. We also saw here that 72% of voters said that it was just a matter of time before something like this happened in America, this being the assassination attempt on Donald Trump.

Just 28% described it as a shocking event that they would not have expected. This has become the norm. I think that this is a huge problem and I do think, again, even though Trump is obviously a victim of this as well, himself, given that assassination attempt, we did see voters here, they weren't convinced that even though this most recent event was one in which the republican candidate was targeted, there wasn't a big conviction that Democratic rhetoric and extremism is driving the rise in violence. Actually, we had more folks by 8.0 saying that Republican rhetoric and extremism is driving the rise in violence. Most folks said it's all of the above. It's what's happening in the media and is the [unintelligible 00:23:55] problem on both parties.

Kai Wright: Everyone just sees it as a fact of life in the United States is that there will be political violence. That is--

Patrick Toomey: I don't think that this election is going to solve for that. I think there are some wonderful folks who are working to reduce contempt across both sides, but I don't know that this election is ultimately going to change that.

Kai Wright: As a Democrat, I think I get a sense of what you think is the most promising stuff in this poll. What's the most troubling thing for you as a Democrat that you saw in this poll?

Patrick Toomey: I think immigration continues to be a really tough issue for Democrats and one that we have work to do to show voters, particularly, those who maybe aren't paying attention to every policy fight in Washington. Voters who've realized very little gets done because of gridlock and so they've stopped paying attention to all of that squabbling. They may not know that, in fact, there was a bipartisan immigration reform package that was torpedoed by Trump's allies in Congress specifically because he told them to kill it because it would be bad for his reelection prospects if we had actually made progress on immigration.

I think there's things that we can do about this but more voters need to understand the real story of what's happening on immigration and which party is, in fact, fighting for reform and which party is standing in the way of making any changes whatsoever to a system that for different reasons, but we all agree is broken. I think the other piece, and I think the Harris campaign is already doing a good job on this front but like I said, a lot of folks are excited about the possibility of someone who represents change, someone who represents a new generation of leadership.

There's still plenty of work to be done to fully introduce her to voters who may have paid some attention to the 2020 Democratic primaries, particularly, if they were Democrats and may have not paid so much attention if they were independents. The Trump campaign will have room to define her and like we already discussed, they've started to do that. Some of that has started to creep into voters thinking about qualifications or seriousness.

If Harris is not able to really effectively define herself on her own terms before the Trump campaign can do it for her, that would be a problem. I do think that we're moving in the right direction there. I think we're seeing a lot of success on the Democratic side in introducing Harris very effectively but the Trump campaign still has ample room to define her, particularly, for undecided voters and swing voters, and voters who may not really tune in until it's closer to November.

Kai Wright: Well, we will leave it there. I will continue watching your Swing State Project, Patrick. Patrick Toomey is a partner at the research firm BSG, which is collaborating with the Cook Political Report on polling in seven swing states this election. Thanks for getting on the call from the DNC for us, Patrick. I hope you enjoy the rest of the convention.

Patrick Toomey: Thank you so much, Kai, it was great talking with you.

Kai Wright: I'm Kai Wright, and this is our pop-up election series, On The Call, which each week between now and election day, I'm calling up somebody I just think is smart about some aspect of this historic election to pick their brains. If there is something you want to know more about, then you should give me an assignment. Just let me know what you want to talk about. You can call and leave a voicemail at 844-745-8255. That's 844-745-Talk or you could record a voice memo on your phone and email it to notes@wnyc.org.

That's notes@wnyc.org, just be sure to include your first name. Let me know where you're calling from, and then just tell me what you're curious about, and I will see if I can find somebody to get on the call, to talk about it. Okay, thanks for listening, and I will talk to you next in our live show on Sunday.

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