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Melissa Harris-Perry: In the spirit of the Easter Bunny, we'll be hopping around to some of the key political issues ahead of the midterm elections this November. Amy Walter, a host of The Cook Political Report, and of course, also formerly of The Takeaway is predicting that Republicans will gain 15 to 25 seats this fall. With a razor-thin margin separating the parties in the US Senate, Republicans may also claim control of the Upper Chamber of Congress.

Now, some of the advantages that Republicans are enjoying as we head into the midterms are tied to long-term trends in American election outcomes. Look, in nearly every modern midterm election, the president's party loses seats, and because midterms tend to have lower turnout, they also tend to favor Republicans, at least in most districts. Conservatives are not just resting on mechanisms of history, they're employing a number of strategies to maximize their chance of victory, including pursuing coordinated efforts in the states to propose legislation on a handful of flashpoint issues to energize their base.

For more on politics and midterms, let's talk with Christina Greer, Associate Professor of Political Science at Fordham University, co-host of the podcast FAQ NYC, and author of the book entitled Black Ethnics: Race, Immigration and the Pursuit of the American Dream. Also with us is Ron Christie. He apparently holds four faculty appointments and is former Special Assistant to President George W. Bush and a Republican strategist. Welcome back to The Takeaway, Ron, and Christina.

Christina Greer: Thanks so much, Melissa. [crosstalk]

Melissa Harris-Perry: Ron, let me just start with you. We were talking at the very top of the show about election skepticism, especially in Georgia, and the sense that many folks have actually on both sides of the aisle: voters that our elections may not be as free and fair as we have typically been proud to say they are in the US. I'm wondering whether or not this election skepticism is something that you think will play into the midterms?

Ron Christie: Good day to you, Melissa. It's very interesting, I was actually in Georgia this week and I had the opportunity to talk to a lot of people about the midterms, about election reform. What struck me is that a lot of the people that I spoke to said, "This is an issue that people on the Republican and the Democratic side of the aisle are trying to nationalize, but for those of us in Georgia, we don't feel that our rights are being infringed on. We don't feel that it's harder to vote than it used to be before, and we don't understand why everyone is descending into Georgia to try to make a national issue out of something that we did at the local level."

Melissa Harris-Perry: Christina, same question for you. How do you see election skepticism potentially impacting midterm turnout?

Christina Greer: As you said, Melissa the president's party traditionally loses seats during the midterm and I think the way that Republicans have gerrymandered districts makes it a good look for them, especially come November when we're looking at them taking over either the House or the Senate. I think what's concerning, though, is that Republicans have been very clear that everything will be a no, no matter what Joe Biden tries to push forward. We have people because of inflation, because of COVID, because of fears of rising crime, because of the stresses of CRT, and social issues, who may not turn out as far as the Democratic Party is concerned.

Then we have this advantage for Republican voters and the Republican party in a much larger scale, but I think people need to look past November 2022, to think about what happens though if we now have a divided government at the federal level, and what could possibly get passed. We'll see whether or not Joe Biden is able to articulate a vision between now and November to try and galvanize Democrats to turn out in ways that traditionally they don't, especially during a midterm election with a sitting Democratic president.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Professor Greer, I feel like you just set out actually the whole syllabus of the midterm elections: inflation, crime, social issues, and whether or not both of the parties are capable of really motivating their base to turnout. Let's just walk through that a little bit. Ron, let me start with you on inflation. I was talking about the big, historic trends that tend to tell us how elections, both at the presidential and midterm levels will turn out. Inflation or even just the sense that the economy is not humming along is typically bad for the incumbent.

Ron Christie: It's typically bad for the incumbent, Melissa. I think President Biden has a really, really terrible set of factors that are going to potentially blow out a lot of Democrats in the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate. When you have the worst level of inflation since 1981, when you have wage growth that has been eclipsed by the spike in inflation, people are upset. You go to the gas station, it's more expensive. You go to the grocery store, it's more expensive to buy meat, milk, and the essentials for your family. They say, "What are those knuckleheads, candidly, in Washington DC doing, or more accurately, why aren't they doing anything to address this?"

As I look to the prospects of the Democrats heading into November, they had better throw a Hail Mary up and do something quickly to say, as Bill Clinton famously said, "I feel your pain, I feel you, I see you, and I'm going to do something." Otherwise, I think it's going to be a catastrophic election in November.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Christina, I wonder how much-- People undoubtedly feel exactly these things, my personal Tik Tok is full of people mad at the gas station. I'm wondering just about presidential messaging on this, why not make that expensive gas a Putin problem? Why not effectively frame the question of inflation as a COVID problem, and then lay Putin and COVID at the feet of the Republicans? Or is it simply that if you're the president, you own it?

Christina Greer: Listen, this is what has so many Democrats scratching their heads. We saw this when Barack Obama was the president, and he saved the United States and the world from falling off the financial cliff. Then when he put Americans back to work and rebuilt the social safety net, that by and large Republicans rip out from underneath us each and every time they're in power, by giving their friends tax breaks, Democrats failed to let voters know just what they've done. With the Obama administration, they name it the America Rediscovery Back to Work Act, no one actually knows that the money that's in their pockets is coming from the Democrats.

Joe Biden has not articulated to the American public the real problem so now he's getting linked to my favorite living president, Jimmy Carter, in the worst of ways. People are saying, "We haven't seen inflation like this since Jimmy Carter." We all know what happened to Jimmy Carter, we can look at the map from 1980. The frustration I have is, Melissa, we've written books before, I don't know, Ron have you written books?

Ron Christie: I've got three.

Christina Greer: There you go. We all know, when you write a book-- [unintelligible 00:07:35] told me this years ago. When you write a book, that's only 50% of the task. Publicizing the book is the other 50%, because if no one knows you wrote the book, who cares? It sits on your grandmother's shelf, because no one's going to read it. I think that's the problem with the Democrats, they put together these great packages, and then leave them on the shelf, and they leave it up to voters and sometimes surrogates to figure out what they've done and how it is that we're going to the gas station in New York and paying $4.75. Or you can go to the grocery store and pay $50 and barely have one bag of groceries.

They're not linking it to the international factors, they're not linking it to the past administration that ripped out the social safety net during the time of COVID that we now have to rebuild. That's sadly a problem that the Democrats consistently repeat. I think we're going to see some results from that failure in November 2022.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Ron, I want to come to you where Professor Greer has left us off with this possibility of writing a book that only your grandmama reads, but part of it is actually if your grandmama is reading the book of the midterms, you might do pretty well, because those senior voters, those are the reliable durable voters, those are the chronic voters. Talk to me a little bit about the get-out-the-vote strategy and the ways that Republicans at least seem to me have a coordinated national strategy based actually less on these economic pieces and more on what feels to me like a bit mean-spirited social policies around, for example, transgender youth.

Ron Christie: I look at my party and I think we should always be talking about what we're in favor of as opposed to what we're against. It seems to me on a national level that so many Republicans are, "We're against this, we're against that, we want to defeat Democrats for this." I look back to Ronald Reagan's America Sunny Vision and I think we've lost our ways. I don't think we should be talking about social issues, I don't think we should be talking about abortion. I think we should be talking about the kitchen table issues that really confront so many American families, particularly as we were just speaking about as it relates to inflation or crime, and how can we move past that.

Republicans might think that they have an advantage which I think we do heading into November, but I think long term, people are going to say, "Why are they so mean-spirited? Why do they sound like that old man who's yelling, "Get off of my lawn," as opposed to, "What can we do to move the country forward?"

Melissa Harris-Perry: Christina, it's a good point. If Republicans in fact have a big win which they are actually lacking as former President Obama said of the midterm elections during his first term in office. If that happens, when you both have these economic indicators and these social policy discourse out there, I wonder what message then gets drawn and if not only the National Republican Party but the National Democratic Party take social conservatism as, "That's what happened and so now we've got to pull hard to the right." It worries me that that might be the message that could emerge.

Christina Greer: That's true. I think Ron has a fair point though, Melissa where there is a danger that Republicans could overplay their hand if Democrats can articulate to voters both Democrats and Republicans how they have done so. Think of Brian Kemp, for example, he just signed a bill into law allowing people to carry guns without any background checks and just essentially saying, "Hey, if you want a gun get a gun." There are a lot of Republicans in Georgia who don't like that bill because they're looking at rising crime. They're looking at school shootings and they're saying, "We're just going to put guns in the hands of anyone?" That seems like a bit of an overreach.

If Democrats can explain to other Republicans let's just say about protecting a woman's right to choose, that's the conversation Democrats are having that's obviously not the conversation Republicans want to have, but what about protections in case your daughter gets raped? This is a way that Democrats can meet Republicans where they are and talk to them about issues to highlight the fact that so many Republican legislators on a local state and even national level are really overreaching in their policy proposals. That is a possibility. I don't know if they will be able to do that before the midterms in November.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Ron, let's dig in on one of the kitchen table issues that you named which is crime. What is the current Republican messaging around crime and violence?

Ron Christie: I think a lot of Republicans are looking at District Attorneys around the United States, Philadelphia, New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and saying, "We need to take a strong look at cash bail reform. We need to put people in jail who have committed heinous and violent crimes." What I worry about however and we saw this earlier this week with the shooting in Grand Rapids is that Republican efforts to talk tough on crime can be perceived as, "Let's put Black people in jail," and they're being put in jail either at the hands of white prosecutors or white police officers who have used excessive force or are using excessive means.

Yes, Republicans absolutely have an upper hand to talk about crime, but you need to do it when you talk about the specific crimes involved and be careful about not trying to demonize people of color because I think that's a losing issue for us.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Christina, I'm going to ask you the same thing around this question of crime messaging. Again, we've seen Democrats also pick up some more tough on crime language right here in New York City, right? Mayor Eric Adams.

Christina Greer: [laughs] Yes, Mayor Eric Adams. I think it's difficult for Democrats right now because they're trying to have a long-term and short-term conversation about crime. We saw in 1994 with the overreach of the crime bill, they were a lot of Democratic mayors and members of the CBC, the Congressional Black Caucus, there were a lot of Black mayors who supported that crime bill.

There is always the danger that Democrats will actually let the pendulum swing too far to the right because of the immediate factors when you see the visuals that New Yorkers had this past week in Brooklyn with the shooter. I think the frustration for me is that Democrats don't link say the rise in crime with Republicans ripping out the social safety net. What about education and housing stability and job growth and all the mental health programs that Democrats actually like to fund that Republicans like to defund?

If they're saying, "If you're worried about crime in your cities, we know-" Thank you Mary and Barry for providing jobs to young people. "-if people have money in their own pockets, if they have jobs, if they have stable housing-" We know with COVID people are feeling incredibly on edge and unstable. "-if we can provide a holistic way with a social safety net, we can actually decrease some of the crime that we see in our communities and the perception of crime that other people are feeling that's making them quite scared to live in cities or a city adjacent.

If the Democrats could actually walk us through--" It's not a complicated conversation. The data is there. "If they could walk us through how Republicans have made us less safe. Republicans in states that are hard, hard red states they've made Democrats in bluer states less safe. They've made people in purple states less safe. Why can't they then explain to America how that is that we need to build up a social safety net for specific communities so that everyone is safe across the board?"

That's not something they've done and so Republicans obviously aren't going to raise their hands and say, "Yes, we're the ones who defund all of these important programs. This is why we're seeing spikes in crimes as well."

Melissa Harris-Perry: Now, I've set up this conversation as a red, blue, Democrat, Republican conversation, but before we go I want to leave both of you with the opportunity to say, are there any lawmakers, any candidates, any districts, or states where you've really got your eye trained in part because there may be a Republican who seems to be defying what the current trend is or a Democrat who is defying what the current trend is within the party?

I guess I'm looking for those potential candidates or lawmakers that are behaving in ways that might show us that something new is coming on the other side.

Ron Christie: Let me say this, Melissa. I think it's fascinating to me talking about Title 42, and for the listeners, this is an imposition that was put in place by President Trump that says if you're coming across the border illegally that we can deport you given the COVID situation. I'm looking at Senator Kelly in Arizona, I'm looking at Senator Hassan in New Hampshire, and there are so many Democrats who now are fearful of the Biden Administration's desire to ease restrictions that will make it easier for migrants to come across the border illegally. Who are saying, "If we don't stand up and if we don't look tough and stand tough against illegal border immigration, the Democrats are going to get blown out." That's what I've got my eyes trained on heading into November.

Christina Greer: Yes, I always look at Mitt Romney and Liz Cheney when they defy their party and I don't think it's lost in this. They're also second-generation Republicans who represent a Republican party that is slowly but surely disappearing. I think that they represent Republicans who were willing to have substantive conversations with Democrats and reach across the aisle and do what's right when the time comes.

I'm hoping that they can actually talk to or mentor some people within their party, but it seems as though a lot of the young candidates that Republicans are putting forward are Trump Republicans who believe in anti-Semitism, anti-Muslim sentiments, anti-immigrant sentiments. They're the more extreme wing of the party that is now sadly the main wing of the party. I'm hoping that I can see some more leadership from people like Romney and Cheney in thinking about some of the other days of Republicans 10, 20 years ago when conversations were possible.

Melissa Harris-Perry: Christina Greer is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Fordham University, co-host of the podcast FAQ NYC, and author of the book Black Ethnics: Race, Immigration and the Pursuit of the American Dream. Ron Christie is a former Special Assistant to President George W. Bush and a Republican strategist. Ron and Christina thank you both for joining me today.

Christina Greer: Thanks so much, Melissa.

Ron Christie: Thank you.

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